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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

..00z aviation update...

issued at 228 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi Valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 228 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western County Warning Area with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern County Warning Area which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won't be a big rainmaker, even for the
western County Warning Area where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western cwa, but no severe storms are expected.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 228 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this Point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New European model (ecmwf)
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 611 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible tomorrow morning, and will maintain the
prob30 group at jln, where the chances for rain are best (in a
relative sense). That said, copious amounts of dry air in place will
keep most locations dry, and even where showers do develop, flight
conditions should remain within VFR.

Any showers that develop during the morning will dissipate by
early afternoon, with gradually clearing skies thereafter.


issued at 224 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

10/24 10/25 10/26
Fri. Sat. Sun.

Sgf 84/1891 85/1939 86/1891
jln 88/2003 87/1944 87/1950
Uno 84/1985 83/1952 84/1950
vih 81/2012 83/1902 84/1952


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...lindenberg
long term...lindenberg

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