Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1217 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015
Short term...(this evening through friday)
It was a gorgeous October day across the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s under sunny skies.
A cold front was approaching the region from the northwest, and
will be forced through southern Missouri by a pair of upper level
Water vapor shows the initial disturbance nearly aligned with the
surface front across central Kansas early this afternoon. A second
speed Max was located across northwest Wyoming. Both of these
features will trigger showers over southeast Kansas and southern
Missouri tonight. Since cape values are progged to be under 100
j/kg or less, it may be difficult to generate any thunder.
Certainly no severe weather is expected tonight.
Look for overnight lows to cool into the middle 50s. As a much
cooler airmass continues to flow across southern Missouri
tomorrow, afternoon highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s.
Sunshine will be welcomed by the afternoon hours, while northerly
breezes persist between 5 and 12 mph.
Long term...(friday night through thursday)
The overall weather pattern from Friday night through all of next
week doesn't appear to change at all. This will lead to an
extended period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures.
Friday night into Saturday morning looks to be the chilliest night
of the next 7 days, with lows well into the 40s for most
From early Saturday morning, a strong warming trend will ensue
with temperatures bouncing back into the 70s by the afternoon.
Readings in the 80s will be common Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Models do indicate a disturbance quickly passing through Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a front down with it. There are
some minor possibilities of light showers forming along this
front, however, most if not all locations will remain dry through
Through the rest of next week, more northwest flow is expected
with temperatures reaching the 70s on an afternoon basis.
Essentially no clear signals for precipitation exist within the
next 7 to 10 days.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1208 am CDT Friday Oct 09 2015
A passing cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region overnight. Visibilities will drop into
the MVFR category with heavier showers and thunderstorms. The
showers will then linger into Friday morning as an upper level
disturbance passes through the region. Skies will then clear later
Surface winds will become northerly behind the front and will
remain below 12 knots. Winds will then become light and variable
Friday evening which may then set the stage for fog late Friday