Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

..update to aviation discussion for 00z tafs...

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)

Sunshine and south breezes boosted temperatures into the 60s
today. Gulf moisture was transporting northward into the southern
and Central Plains, but had not made it to the Ozarks yet. As a
matter of fact, elevated fire weather conditions were observed in
most areas as relative humidity values dropped below 30%.

These south winds will keep the Ozarks airmass mixed tonight
lending to mild temperatures. Temperatures will only fall into the
middle and upper 40s along and west of Highway 65. Readings in the
upper 30s are possible out toward the Eastern Ozarks.

Wednesday should be mostly dry, although we'll have to watch for
some warm advection showers that always seem to affect the area
under these situations. We can also expect a lot more cloud cover
on Wednesday, however, temperatures will still warm into the 60s
in most locations.

Showers will increase in coverage Wednesday night, although, not
all locations will receive rain.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)

Moderate to heavy rain will impact the region Thursday through
Saturday night as a large slow moving storm system forces
unseasonable amounts of Gulf moisture into the Ozarks. Models are
indicating that this system is becoming less and less progressive
with time.

The heaviest rain will expand across southern Missouri Thursday
night into Friday as a frontal system slowly sags through the

A continuous band or moderate to heavy rain is suggested by the
GFS to persist across areas southeast of Interstate 44 as we
advance into Friday night through Saturday night. Both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) show rain finally ending by Sunday morning.

Our official forecast suggests widespread rainfall amounts ranging
from 3 to 6 inches.

Coming off of widespread flooding from last week's episode,
streamflows are above average. Soil conditions are moist, and
vegetation is lacking across the southern Missouri terrain.
Therefore, the Ozarks hydrologic basins and channels should be
much more susceptible to flooding with this round of heavy rain.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 0545 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

For the ksgf, kjln, and kbbg tafs: gusty south to southeasterly
winds continue to occur at the taf sites this evening through the
day Wednesday. Low level wind shear will also likely develop at
the taf sites this evening and last into the day on Wednesday.

The gusty southerly winds will usher in an increase in low level
moisture and clouds will spread into the area this evening with
ceilings around 4000 to 5000 feet. Ceilings will then lower
through the night with MVFR ceilings expected to develop late
tonight and prevail through much of the day Wednesday. Drizzle
will be possible at times from late tonight into the early
afternoon hours Wednesday at all the taf sites.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Cramer
long term...Cramer

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations