Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 306 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Another beautiful Spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor mesoscale convective system behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low pops across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 306 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the Western
Plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the West Coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards The Four
Corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across The
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 540 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Convection occuring in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska. We are expecting this activity to remain north
of our area through the forecast period and will keep VFR
conditions going. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible
at the jln taf site tonight and will continue to see some mid/high
level cloudiness through the period.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...gagan
long term...Hatch

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations