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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
144 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

A cold front will push southward across the area tonight as a
potent shortwave trough swings across the Great Lakes region. This
front will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
as it pushes into the Ozarks later tonight. Activity developing
across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas could make into
central Missouri by early evening with convection making it into
far southern Missouri overnight. Organized severe weather is not
expected but a few stronger storms will be possible mainly this
evening across central Missouri before instability wanes with
sunset.

The cold front will push south into Arkansas early Sunday morning
bringing an end to any chance of convection. A dry and cooler
airmass will advect into the Ozarks Sunday as a sprawling area of
surface high pressure builds southward into the central U.S.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The cooler weather will persist into early next week as the large
high pressure area shifts eastward. The upper ridge will rebuild
over the region next week resulting in a warming trend by the
middle and later part of the week. Medium range models continue
to show an upper level trough pushing into this ridge then weaken.
Will have to monitor this weakness in the ridge that could
generate a few showers the middle of next week.

However, overall it looks to be an extended period of dry and
seasonably mild weather as we head into the first week of fall.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 601 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Areas of light fog will continue until after sunrise this morning,
with vis restrictions generally in the MVFR range. The exception
will be at bbg, where periods of IFR vis will be possible. Fog
should dissipate between 13z and 14z.

Southwest winds will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold
front, which will move into the region late tonight. A few
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front late, but
coverage is not expected to be particularly widespread. For now,
will handle rain/thunder chances with a prob30 group. Once the
front passes, winds will become northerly.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Foster
long term...Foster
aviation...wise

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