Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
327 am CST sun Nov 23 2014
Short term...(today and tonight)
Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.
Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.
As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
Long term...(monday through saturday)
Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.
Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation's mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.
Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.
No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014
Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.
The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.
As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.