Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
557 am CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

..12z aviation forecast update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 259 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

500mb low over North Texas early this morning will translate
eastward into southern Arkansas today and into the southeast conus
tonight. Far southern Missouri will be on the northern periphery of
the precipitation shield. In fact some near term models keep all the
precipitation to the south of the area through the day today. Given
close proximity of light radar returns early this morning, will maintain
lower end probabilities across the far south today. Models depict
very little instabilities so only showers expected. Otherwise mid
and high clouds along with a northeasterly low level flow will
keep the cool temperatures in place through tonight with highs in
the 60s today and lows in the 40s tonight. Warmest readings look
to be across central Missouri this afternoon where highs could
touch 70 under the thinner cloud cover.

Skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight as the
low shifts eastward and surface high builds across the area.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 259 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Overall flow becomes highly amplified Wednesday and Thursday as
ridging pushes into the the middle part of the country and
troughing develops over the northeast. Forecast area will see
building heights as ridge nudges closer. This will make for a
tranquil period with temperatures on the upswing with dry
conditions. The trough pushes off the East Coast on Friday with a
slight northwest flow regime over the area which will transition to
more a more zonal orientation Saturday through Monday. This will
allow a surface front to drop southward this weekend into early next
week. At this time the best chance for rain looks to be Monday and
Monday night.

As for temperatures, they will warm into the 70s by the end of the
end of the week and remain slightly above normal into early next


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 552 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

VFR conditions will remain during the next 24 hours for all
terminals across the Missouri Ozarks. There are no aviation
concerns. Scattered high cirrus clouds will filter through the
skies and winds will be light northeasterly around 10 knots or less.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...raberding
long term...raberding

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations