Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

Short term...(today and Friday night)
issued at 226 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time
yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly
before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake.

Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day,
with another round of scattered storms expected during the
afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this
afternoon, however, an increase in dew points will keep heat index
values in the 98f to 105f range. As a result, the heat advisory
remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear
will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms
will be possible. Not quite sure we'll see a repeat performance of
the Golf Ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but
a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds
in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after
sunset.

Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper
level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that
should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye
on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an
extension may not be needed as dew points look to mix out during
the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look
to be to our north and east.

As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west
beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to
east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best
chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds
and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs
for Friday.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 226 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with
likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with
outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a
back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area
lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on
Saturday. Followed the European model (ecmwf) more with regards to the forecast on
Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances
will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for
late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an
afternoon storm.

The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with
seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model
solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS
keeping the weather dry and the European model (ecmwf) has a stalled out or slow
moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and
followed a little more closely with the European model (ecmwf) and included chance
pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z ksgf sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
PM CDT.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for moz055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

Kansas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ksz073-097-101.

&&

$$

Short term...gagan
long term...Griffin
aviation...dsa

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations