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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 0348 PM CDT Monday Aug 03 2015

GOES sounder water vapor channels from 6.5 to 7.4 microns continue
to show a well defined dry slot bisecting the weather forecast office sgf forecast
area from northwest to southeast over the area. The 12km
NAM...Canadian...GFS suggesting an enhancement of the ridge across
the area for this afternoon and into tonight...capping any
potential for organized convection for tonight across the area.

The lowest confidence on probability of precipitation and weather for the short term time
period is on Tuesday. Both high resolution and lower resolution
model guidance show a spread of solutions. The NAM-WRF appears the
driest...with the Canadian...GFS and European model (ecmwf) progressively wetter
during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. At this point anticipate
the initial convection will start over along the Kansas/MO
border...then slowly work east-southeast along the antecedent
boundary across the northeast portion of the weather forecast office sgf forecast
area. Debris cloud cover from upstream convection should slow
convective temperatures enough to delay activity further
east...focusing the best instability to the west were a plume of
instability and moisture will move up through OK/Arkansas in advance of
a shallow shortwave working down in the northwest flow through
NE/KS.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 0348 PM CDT Monday Aug 03 2015

Beginning Tuesday evening...both the short and medium range
numerical guidance sharpen and deepen the low amplitude shortwave
in Nebraska. The NAM-WRF combines a series of channeled vorticity
waves..while the GFS/Canadian/latest European model (ecmwf) deepen the trough over
the weather forecast office sgf forecast area. Given these scenarios...kept likely
and/or categorical probability of precipitation over the northern 2/3rds of the forecast
area. An enhanced low level jet...a decent fetch of moisture and
lift should maintain a series of mesoscale convective systems
across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. May be on the low
side with respect to quantitative precipitation forecast...but storm total amounts through this
week...primarily Tuesday and Wednesday...should yield at least
1.5 inches along and north of a line from Hammond Kansas to
Springfield and Eminence Missouri. This may cause some water
related concerns. The uncertainty is where the effective frontal
boundary will set up...which may impact gradient of quantitative precipitation forecast from north
to south across the weather forecast office sgf forecast area.

Little significant change to the remainder of the long term
forecast period. Another system moves in for the weekend...but
should have lesser impact than the Tuesday-Wednesday weather
system.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 0617 PM CDT Monday Aug 03 2015

VFR conditions are expected through tonight with light and
variable winds. High clouds will then increase on Tuesday as low
pressure approaches from the west. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible by late afternoon. Surface winds will become
southwesterly on Tuesday but will generally remain light.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...weather forecast office pah/Smith
long term...weather forecast office pah/Smith
aviation...schaumann

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