Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 am CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
..12z aviation forecast update...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 222 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
There will be active weather during the morning commute for some
across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Convection has
been redeveloping across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
moving slowly to the northeast. The hrrr has been handling this
well and will see this convection continue mainly along and north
of I-44 through mid morning. There will be a risk for stronger
convection to develop this morning with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat along with frequent lightning and heavy
The short term models are in good agreement with the advancing
cold front moving into southeast Kansas by mid afternoon.
Initially discreet convection will develop along and just ahead of
the front between 18-20z. This convection will quickly merge into
a squall line or line segments as the line advances rather quickly
eastward. Followed the hrrr closely for the afternoon convection.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging winds
being the main threat...followed by large hail...and the risk of a
couple isolated tornadoes. The line of storms will be near the
Joplin area by 4 PM and Springfield area by 6 PM. The line will be
clearing the eastern Missouri Ozarks before midnight this evening.
Will leave the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is with the heaviest
storm total rainfall expected in the watch area where totals will
be between 2 to 5 inches. Areas southeast of I-44 will see totals
between 1 to 2 inches.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 222 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
Friday will be a blustery and much cooler day with passing clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles or spotty light shower or two. The
latest guidance shows a piece of upper level energy moving across
the area especially the central Missouri area with some clouds and
sprinkles possible. Winds will be gusty up to 25 mph and
temperatures struggling to get above 60 degrees.
Skies will clear Friday evening for Friday night football around
the Missouri Ozarks but it will be chilly. The big question will
be the frost potential. Guidance is a degree or two colder again
with lows down in the middle to upper 30s likely. Wouldn't be
surprise a few colder spots that are protected get down in the
lower 30s. Winds will possibly remain up around 5 mph or so. Will
put back in the mention of patchy frost into the forecast
especially valleys and wind protected areas. The frost potential
will need to be looked at again over the next day for any possible
headlines by Friday. People with sensitive outdoor plants will
need to pay attention to the forecast for Friday night.
Seasonably cool temperatures will stay around for the weekend and
mostly dry conditions and a northwest flow. Guidance shows another
weak mid level disturbance moving through on Monday with a few
more clouds and possible light showers. The overall flow will
flatten by the middle of next week with southerly winds returning.
A moderation in temperatures will return with above normal
temperatures by middle next week.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 521 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region will be strong to severe convection
developing today through this evening. On going convection this
morning will affect mainly jln and later sgf. There will be a
small break in convection around midday with additional strong to
severe convection developing by mid to late afternoon.
Have the line of convection moving from west to east affecting jln
earliest and bbg during the early evening hours. Convection will
taper to vcsh by the evening. There will be ceiling and
visibility drops to low end MVFR if not IFR possible under the
heaviest convection. Gusty and variable winds can be expected
under the strongest convection as well. Winds will generally be
out of ths south today switching to northwest behind a cold front
tonight. Overall trend for tonight will be a drop in ceilings to
low end MVFR flirting with IFR possibly for sgf and bbg.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for moz055>058-066>071-
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ksz073-097-101.