Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 232 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

The western edge of surface high pressure will remain over the
region into today as upper level ridging begins to move over the
area. There is a slight chance for a few showers to occur over
extreme southwestern Missouri through sunrise as a short wave
moves across the Ozarks on the eastern edge of the building upper
level ridge. Any rain that does fall would be very light or
sprinkles.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend today as the upper ridge
shifts east. Temperatures today will climb into the middle to
upper 80s. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the 70s as
dew point temperatures remain in the upper 60s to around 70 on
southerly winds.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 232 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

The weekend will be on the warm side as the upper ridge pushes a
little farther east over the Ozarks and allows afternoon
temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 90s. Developing
surface low pressure over western Kansas will also bring more
moist air into the area, making for a warm and humid weekend.

Models remain very consistent in moving an unseasonably deep
upper low south out of northern Canada and over the Great Lakes
and Hudson Bay areas. This system will push a cold front through
the area Monday and bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. A few strong storms may be possible as the front
move through the region.

Temperatures in the 850mb layer are expected to only be around 10
degrees c behind cold front and associated with the upper low. This
is unusually cold for July and will lead to temperatures by the
middle of next week only reaching the middle 70s for afternoon
highs. This is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year
for the Ozarks.

Overnight lows will potentially flirt with record lows,
especially Wednesday morning when models have surface high
pressure moving over the Ozarks.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of next week
though a slow warming trend will occur.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

For the ksgf, kjln, and kbbg tafs...VFR conditions are expected
across the area this afternoon through Saturday morning and beyond.
South to southwesterly winds will occur through the taf period and
may increase above 12kt at times at the ksgf and kjln taf sites.
Scattered mid to high level clouds will occur through today
clearing out tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Hatch
long term...Hatch
aviation...wise

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations