Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
320 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 0320 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

A cold front will move through the area this morning. Temperatures
will still warm into the low to mid 40s across extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri by midday. Winds will increase
through the day, especially this afternoon, and will usher colder
conditions into the area. Therefore, temperatures will begin to
fall this afternoon as the colder air builds south. Highs across
central Missouri will only warm into the lower 30s today as
temperatures fall into the 20s this afternoon.

Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the region
tonight and Saturday. A cold night is in store across the area as
lows fall into the 5 to 15 degrees range, with the coldest
reading occurring across central Missouri. Wind chill values
tonight into Saturday morning will drop to around 5 above to 5
below.

Highs on Saturday will range from the middle 20s across central
Missouri to near the 40 degree mark across extreme southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

A very dry air mass will overspread the area tonight and
Saturday. As a result afternoon humidity values will drop below 30
percent Saturday afternoon if not closer to 20 percent. Winds will
not be overly strong, but southeasterly winds around 10 mph will
start to return across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri Saturday afternoon, and combined with the very dry
conditions could result in some elevated fire weather conditions
developing.

Long term...(saturday tonight through thursday)
issued at 0320 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

An upper level trough will then spread into the plains on Sunday
and spread east across the area Sunday night into Monday. Ahead
of the trough warm air advection and isentropic lift will start
to overspread the area as a strong low level jet develops. A dry
air mass will be in place ahead of this system so some moistening
of the low levels will need to occur prior to precipitation
falling. The models do bring a warm nose into southwestern MO and
southeastern Kansas, but they also indicate cloud ice will be
limited, with freezing drizzle possible. By Saturday afternoon
temperatures may warm enough for all rain too occur across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. The precipitation will
be light with this system, but a dusting of snow/sleet and a glaze
of ice are still possible across southeastern Kansas and the
Western Ozarks. Across central and south central Missouri colder
conditions will remain in place so all snow occurring across these
locations, with generally a dusting to less than one inch
possible.

As the trough spreads across the region Sunday night into Monday,
surface low pressure will deepen across Arkansas. Precipitation
will develop on the northern portions of the low and may clip
portions of south central Missouri as the low lifts to the
northeast. Did mention snow across south central Missouri, though
the better chances will remain south and east of the area.

A warm up then occurs next week as upper level ridging builds
towards and then over the region. Highs in the 50s return early
next week, then warm into the 60s by weeks end as the ridge builds
over the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1139 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A dry
cold front will shift winds to the northwest and north after 12z
with some moderate gusts.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Springfield 42 10 33 20 / 0 0 0 10
Joplin 43 13 36 25 / 0 0 0 10
Branson 45 16 34 21 / 0 0 0 10
West Plains 43 11 31 15 / 0 0 0 10
Vichy/Rolla 32 5 24 15 / 10 0 10 20

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...wise
long term...wise
aviation...dsa

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations