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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 am CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

..12z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 231 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

After some pop-up showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon (thanks to a weak upper level disturbance), an upper
level ridge will really begin to assert itself today. This ridge
will suppress any convective potential. Hot temperatures will also
continue with high temperatures again warming into the middle to
upper 90s. We then went with persistence for lows tonight with
lower to middle 70s expected.

As for afternoon heat indices, they will not get out of control
over most areas due to afternoon mixing. Upstream 00 UTC raobs
once again indicated the presence of dew points in the lower 50s
once you approach 850 mb. We will therefore continue to see dew
points drop into the lower to middle 60s from mid to late
afternoon in the higher terrain of the Missouri Ozarks. Heat
indices in these areas will be very close to actual air
temperatures. Slightly higher dew points (and heat indices) are
expected up around Truman lake and in valley regions across south-
central Missouri. Heat indices in these areas may reach the 99-103
degree they did yesterday.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 231 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

That upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather
picture into this weekend. High temperatures will not change all
that much with highs in the middle to upper 90s. The pattern will
remain favorable for drier air to mix down to the surface across
higher terrain. We may need a heat advisory over portions of the
area towards the weekend due to several consecutive afternoons of
heat indices above 100 degrees. The best prospects for this
would be in the lakes region of central Missouri and possibly over
portions of south-central Missouri.

Models have diverged as we get into the early and middle portions
of next week. The European model (ecmwf) tries to retrograde and rebuild the 500
mb ridge right over the Ozarks. The GFS brings a strong upper
level trough and cold front into the region during the same time
period. Interestingly, the GFS five wave charts actually try and
rebuild the long wave ridge over the Ohio Valley during this same
time...which is actually more supportive of the operational European model (ecmwf).
With that being said, we are going to side more towards the European model (ecmwf)
and keep temperatures at or slightly above normal. We kept pops at
or below 30 percent given model discrepancies.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 558 am CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Similar conditions to yesterday can be expected today at the
terminals, minus any potential for precipitation. Low level wind shear this morning will give
way to gusty southwest winds through early evening. Low level wind shear will then
return tonight. VFR conditions will prevail.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...schaumann
long term...schaumann

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