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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 227 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 227 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20c nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1209 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned prob30 groups for
this potential at area taf sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Griffin
long term...gagan

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