Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 1215 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 1215 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light quantitative precipitation forecast event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the County Warning Area.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. And moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. Next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1144 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at sgf/bbg overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Griffin
long term...Griffin
aviation...lindenberg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations