Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
309 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
Short term...(today and Sunday night)
Lower Pacific moisture was streaming into the nation's midsection
this morning in advance of a large upper level low centered over the
Light precipitation resulted over Kansas and western Missouri. We
think this will continue to saturate the lower trop, setting up
additional rainfall later this afternoon.
Areas along and north of Interstate 44 will experience the best
chances for measurable rain today, with the lower chances in far
south central Missouri.
Perhaps the best coverage and heavier rainfall will occur tonight
with the approach of a shortwave trough translating through the
northern belt of westerlies. We increased probability of precipitation for tonight up
to 100 percent for all areas.
A cold front will shift across the region on Sunday, cooling
temperatures sufficiently for a brief change over to snow. Any
snow that falls looks to be light, and may have a difficult time
accumulating given the warm ground temperatures. Therefore on
Sunday, we think there could be a risk for minor accumulations up
in central Missouri. However, the deepest snow will occur up into
the corn belt of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
All precipitation exits the Ozarks by early Monday morning.
Long term...(monday through friday)
Zonal flow aloft quickly evolves by Monday afternoon allowing for
southerly winds to return. This warm advection pattern will bring
dry weather and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s both Tuesday
By Wednesday afternoon, a Canadian front will shift across the
region, bringing cooler air and a chance for snow. Mid level
frontogenesis increases creating the best chances for snow during
the Wednesday night and Thursday morning period. Temperatures will
be cool enough for snow, and we could see widespread accumulations
across the region by Thursday morning.
Northwest flow resumes heading toward the end of the week with
an upper level ridge building in from the southwest. This will
bring more temperature swings to the Ozarks with unseasonably warm
weather likely next weekend.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1139 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015
An upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings and
eventually some rainfall to southern Missouri. Most of the
rainfall is expected to hold off until later Saturday afternoon
and especially Saturday evening due to dry air in the low levels
of the atmosphere. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category through at least Saturday afternoon.
MVFR probabilities will then increase the later we get into
Saturday night. Light winds overnight will begin to increase out
of the southeast on Saturday.