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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 202 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the Eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today. Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region. Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 202 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 miles per hour
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 miles per hour during the afternoon hours. Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas. Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages. Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn't appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek. Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja Coast. This morning's 12z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday. Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at Bay. All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours. In the end, this
weekend's forecast is something Worth watching, but it's still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 1115 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...boxell
long term...boxell
aviation...lindenberg

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