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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 224 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into Kansas. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 224 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves E-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
Continental U.S. Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and Gem a bit faster
with the front versus the European model (ecmwf) as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
Storm Prediction Center has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 557 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the taf
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...dsa
long term...dsa

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