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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

..updated aviation section...

Mesoscale discussion...
issued at 634 PM CDT Thursday Oct 08 2015

Widely scattered showers and a few storms have popped up along a
cold front approaching from the northwest. This activity outlines
the surface wind shift nicely, extending from the Quad Cities
region to the kc Metro to near Emporia, Kansas. Mesoscale models
continue to indicate scattered showers and a few storms along this
front as it moves into the region this evening.

As mentioned in several previous discussions, shear is very weak
and instability is meager. Current MUCAPE values near 1000 j/kg
across central Missouri are the highest expected, and given the
trends of the mesoscale models, MUCAPE will only decrease with
time. As a result, no severe weather is expected with this system.


Short term...(this evening through friday)

It was a gorgeous October day across the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s under sunny skies.

A cold front was approaching the region from the northwest, and
will be forced through southern Missouri by a pair of upper level
shortwave disturbances.

Water vapor shows the initial disturbance nearly aligned with the
surface front across central Kansas early this afternoon. A second
speed Max was located across northwest Wyoming. Both of these
features will trigger showers over southeast Kansas and southern
Missouri tonight. Since cape values are progged to be under 100
j/kg or less, it may be difficult to generate any thunder.
Certainly no severe weather is expected tonight.

Look for overnight lows to cool into the middle 50s. As a much
cooler airmass continues to flow across southern Missouri
tomorrow, afternoon highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s.
Sunshine will be welcomed by the afternoon hours, while northerly
breezes persist between 5 and 12 mph.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)

The overall weather pattern from Friday night through all of next
week doesn't appear to change at all. This will lead to an
extended period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures.

Friday night into Saturday morning looks to be the chilliest night
of the next 7 days, with lows well into the 40s for most

From early Saturday morning, a strong warming trend will ensue
with temperatures bouncing back into the 70s by the afternoon.

Readings in the 80s will be common Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Models do indicate a disturbance quickly passing through Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a front down with it. There are
some minor possibilities of light showers forming along this
front, however, most if not all locations will remain dry through

Through the rest of next week, more northwest flow is expected
with temperatures reaching the 70s on an afternoon basis.

Essentially no clear signals for precipitation exist within the
next 7 to 10 days.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 634 PM CDT Thursday Oct 08 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The main
forecast challenge over the next 12 hours is the incoming cold
front. Widely scattered showers and a few storms have popped up
along this front, and this activity will move southeast with time.
There remains questions as to whether or not there will be enough
instability to support thunder by the time this activity reaches
the taf sites. For the time being, have included thunderstorms in the vicinity at jln, with
no mention at sgf/bbg. Will amend as observations and trends
dictate. A wind shift to the north is expected overnight, with
scattered showers persisting. Clouds will linger much of the day
Friday, with gradual clearing from northwest to southeast.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Cramer
long term...Cramer

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