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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

..18z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 202 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern Kansas/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
Hrrr has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won't amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 202 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

An amplifying western Continental U.S. Ridge will put our region in a NW
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren't any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) do develop an mesoscale convective system over eastern
Nebraska/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central Continental U.S.. the European model (ecmwf) moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The Gem is closer to the European model (ecmwf) versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1219 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this taf period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over jln if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...dsa
long term...dsa
aviation...Frye

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