Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 am CST Fri Jan 30 2015
Short term...(today through Sunday night)
It's been a quiet week regarding the weather but that's about to
change over the weekend.
Water vapor indicated moisture streaming into the nations mid
section from the South Pacific. This moisture will interact with a
northern stream disturbance that is currently approaching British
Precipitation overspreading the Ozarks by Saturday morning will
result. The precipitation type through the weekend has been the
primary forecast challenge, but I think the 00z models just tipped
their hands regarding precip type.
Given the warm air advection structure in the mass fields, the GFS
and the European model (ecmwf) have trended warmer in the lower trop, that would
bring rain across southern and central Missouri through Sunday
Cold air will surge across the region Sunday afternoon, bringing a
chance for rain changing over to light snow into the Sunday
We are not confident that light snow Sunday afternoon and evening
will be heavy enough, or last long enough to accumulate much.
Therefore we will keep accumulations in check at the moment. 60
and 70 degree temperatures this week have warmed ground
temperatures, which is also a negative for snow accumulation.
Light snow occurring during the daylight hours is also a negative.
Rain and light snow will exit the Ozarks Sunday night, setting the
stage for mostly dry weather through the upcoming work week.
Long term...(monday through thursday)
Zonal flow will evolve Monday into Wednesday next week allowing
southerly flow to return across southern Missouri. This will boost
afternoon temperatures back into the 40s and possibly 50s on
A weak disturbance will force another shot of Canadian air through
the area by Wednesday, causing temperatures to fall back toward
There are some weak quantitative precipitation forecast signals with this disturbance, which could
bring a quick round of light snow or flurries. As for now we will
hold off on mentioning anything too specific since we're still
about 5 days out.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday evening with
increasing high clouds. There was some concern that low clouds
could return to southern Missouri late tonight, but upstream
satellite trends now indicate that the low cloud threat is
diminishing. Winds will remain light through the period.