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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 246 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Main forecast challenge through Thursday is centered on ongoing
convection across central and northern Missouri and then convective
regeneration over the Central Plains and its trajectory as it
evolves into an mesoscale convective system later tonight into Thursday.

Convective complex over northern Missouri has slid southward into
the northern portions of the forecast area. 17z hrrr does weaken
this complex as it moves into the Eastern Ozarks this evening.

Attention then turns to the main surface surface boundary over
Nebraska, which will remain across Nebraska into the upper
Mississippi River valley through the period. Both NAM and GFS
consistent in showing strong moisture transport nosing into the
boundary with additional convective initiation late this
afternoon/evening over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. Storm
relative flow would indicate a southeast movement. Meanwhile upper
ridge remains in place from Texas into the Missouri Ozarks and as
storms track southeast they will encounter a more hostile
environment under the ridge, but cannot rule out storms making into
the northwestern part of the forecast area late tonight into
Thursday morning with the potential for some stronger wind gusts and
heavy rains. Storms would then continue to weaken/dissipate through the
day. Will continue lower end probabilities across the northwest and
central areas tonight into early Thursday, but these may have to be
raised significantly by the evening/overnight shift if models come
into better agreement of driving mesoscale convective system into the forecast area.

Otherwise, expect more Summer like temperatures and humidity for
tonight and Thursday.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 246 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

For Thursday night into Friday, convective activity looks to remain
along the periphery of the upper ridge in vicinity of the frontal
boundary to our north. This boundary will then begin to push
southward into the area late Friday into the weekend as the ridge
begins to retreat further southwest. As this occurs, expect better
rain chances as we head into the weekend as the boundary slowly sags
southward. Models do indicate somewhat better 0-6km shear so will
have to monitor for severe weather threat.

Ridge flattens quite a bit early next week and flow becomes more
northwesterly Monday night into Wednesday. This will allow some
cooler air to slip back into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks, but medium range models continue to show somewhat active
weather with periodic rain chances.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1249 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg taf: extensive clouds at times, but
generally VFR conditions are expected in the near term. An area of
thunderstorms to the north will need to be watched, but for now
have no thunder in any of the tafs. Guidance is hinting at some
late night fog/stratus over some of the area toward 09z-10z again
and have MVFR ceilings and visibility to cover this for now.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...raberding
long term...raberding
aviation...dsa

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