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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

..06z aviation update...

issued at 0237 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 04 2015

Mesoscale convective vortex was pushing east-northeast across northeast Oklahoma into
southwest Missouri early this afternoon. Meanwhile a surface
boundary was slowly shifting south-southwest into central Missouri
into our northern County Warning Area. Cloud cover has kept temperatures in the
80s so far today and with showers moving into western MO,
temperatures were in the upper 70s to middle 80s there.

Unsettled weather is expected during the middle portion of the
week and focus will be centered on the risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms along with flooding tonight through Wednesday night.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 0237 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 04 2015

Mesoscale convective vortex will shift across the area tonight while the surface boundary
shifts southward. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
more widespread tonight across the area with several forcing
mechanisms in place.

Things will become more interesting as we head into Wednesday,
especially if expected nighttime and morning convection clears to
the east. Models are developing some surface based instability
with convective available potential energy from 2000-4000 j/kg during the afternoon/evening and
start to bring in 35 to 40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear during that
same time from in from the northwest. If the instability can
materialize, there will be a risk of severe storms during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Right now, we are mainly
focusing over the western 2/3 of the County Warning Area for the severe weather
potential, with large hail, damaging wind and we can't rule out an
isolated tornado.

In addition to the severe weather potential, there will be a heavy
rain risk and the potential for flash flooding. We are going with
two to three inches of rain over our northern and eastern County Warning Area and
will go with a Flash Flood Watch starting at 12z Wednesday and
continuing through 12z Thursday.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 0237 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 04 2015

Another wave of energy will shift into the area late Thursday into
Thursday night as the forecast area will remain to the northeast
of the upper level ridge. This will bring another chance of
thunderstorms to the area. The ridge is expected to amplify and
build more into the region by late in the week into the weekend,
but may still have precipitation chances over our northeast County Warning Area on
the northeast periphery of the ridge. Temperatures should again be
on the rise as the ridge builds back into the area and will start
to see heat index values creep back into the potential advisory


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1150 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 04 2015

Several waves of thunderstorms will affect the region through the
next 24 hours. Timing and coverage of thunderstorms is uncertain,
and have largely maintained only a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention until timing
becomes more clear. VFR should prevail outside of any convection,
with MVFR or even IFR in and around thunderstorms.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 am CDT Wednesday through Thursday
morning for moz055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>096-098.



short term...lindenberg
long term...lindenberg

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