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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 0316 PM CDT sun Oct 04 2015

Low level stratus deck is in place across the much of the
forecast area except for extreme southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri where skies are sunny. The stratus deck is
starting to thin some across south central Missouri and on the
western edge of the clouds. As a result some breaks in the clouds
will be possible late this afternoon in these locations.

Once the sun sets the clouds are expected to continue to build
west into southeastern Kansas, but fewer clouds will likely occur
across south central Missouri overnight.

The region is currently located between two upper level lows, one
across the southeastern U.S. And the other across the southwestern
U.S. The upper level low across the southeast will kick off to the
east early this week, as the upper level low across the southwest
very slowly pushes to the southeast through mid week. As a result
a southwest flow pattern aloft will develop over the region
resulting in a warming trend for the first half of the week. Highs
in the low to mid 70s are expected Monday with highs warming into
the lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. The dry weather pattern will
continue as no rain is expected through Wednesday.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 0316 PM CDT sun Oct 04 2015

The upper level low will continue to slowly spread into Texas by
late this week. An upper level shortwave trough will spread out of
the Pacific northwest and across the central U.S. Late in the
week. A cold front will move through the area Thursday into
Friday with cooler conditions occurring Friday into next weekend.

The front will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Moisture will be somewhat limited so any rain will be
associated with the forcing of the front and shortwave trough.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 0559 PM CDT sun Oct 04 2015

A deck of stratus clouds will keep primarily MVFR ceilings
persistent across southern Missouri through Monday. There will be
fluctuations in ceilings at times. Some weather models try and
bring a brief period of higher ceilings in from the east this
evening. In contrast, weather models then try and build down
ceilings late tonight. It does appear that a period of IFR
ceilings will be possible along the higher terrain of the Ozark
Plateau. This includes Springfield and possibly Branson. We are
also looking at slight restrictions to visibilities closer to
sunrise with MVFR possible. Winds will remain light out of the
north to northeast through Monday.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...wise
long term...wise

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