Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 237 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
The visible satellite is showing some developing cumulus across
the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. There is a very subtle weak
boundary stretching from near Nevada to the southeast around
Springfield to Ava where winds are southeast on the west side of
this boundary and east-northeast over towards West Plains. This
weak feature along with a subtle upper level vorticity wave over
eastern Kansas may develop a few widely scattered thunderstorms
later this afternoon into the early evening hours before sunset.
Instability is not as high as it was yesterday...running about 1000
j/kg and shear is weak. Will not rule out a strong pulse storm
with gusty winds up to 45 miles per hour and some small hail but coverage
will be limited with any convection that does develop.
The evening convection will dissipate by sunset but will watch out
to our northwest across Kansas for another upper level disturbance
to develop convection that way. The 12z NAM... Gem
all show this more pronounce wave moving across Kansas and
developing a complex of storms. This convection complex may hold
together overnight and make its way into southeast Kansas and
extreme southwestern Missouri by early tomorrow morning. As the
disturbance moves over the area during midday tomorrow...this may
develop additional scattered storms again tomorrow. Again...will
not rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with gusty winds
and small hail but overall severe weather chances are very low.
Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 237 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
By the end of the week and into the weekend...the upper level
Summer time ridge will build in and expand over the region. This
will pretty much shut off any rain chances except for the isolated
stray shower possible in the afternoon. Otherwise...temperatures will climb
into the lower 90s and a muggy airmass will be around. Heat index
values will approach the upper 90s. The hot and mostly dry
weather pattern will stay around through the middle of next week.
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1140 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Overall...VFR conditions will be the rule over the next 24 hours.
A slightly more moist and unstable atmosphere will be in place
Thursday afternoon. This will likely result in scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
across the outlook area. Will continue with the prob30 group for
jln/sgf. Otherwise...expect a southeast to south surface wind with
an increase high cloud coverage.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...Griffin
long term...Griffin
aviation...gagan
