Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...
issued at 619 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Isentropic upglide has increased in the past few hours as the
nocturnal low level jet centered over the plains has veered enough
to increase our low level moisture convergence. Elevated
parcels...900mb and above...are uncapped (with elevated cape on
the order of 500 j/kg or so). This will result in a narrow band of
scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading from west to east
across the Missouri Ozarks for the rest of this morning. Today
will be no means be a washout as this activity will hang around
for an hour or two at most. A decent downpour of rain will
accompany any thunderstorms this morning (jln recorded two thirds
of an inch of rain in about a half hours time). Could see a few
showers redevelop this afternoon boundaries linger from this
mornings activity. Once rain moves out...pleasant conditions are
expected for the most part for the rest of today with highs well
into the 70s...with low 80s in the western portions of the outlook
area.
&&
Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 233 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
High pressure continues to pull east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley this morning...with southerly flow increasing across the
region in response...especially over the western half or so of the
County Warning Area. This increase in low level flow/warm air advection has resulted in rather
mild conditions for western Missouri and southeastern Kansas...with
readings only dropping to the low to middle 60s as of 2 am. Further
east...where high pressure remains the dominate feature...morning
lows dropped into the 40s.
Another warm and overall pleasant day is expected across the region
today...as high temperatures warm into the low 80s. Most locations
look to remain dry...but a few isolated thunderstorms may develop
during the day today. The best potential for isolated to scattered
storms will be across central Missouri...where the convective
remnants/mesoscale convective vortex associated with elevated convection currently over
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa may clip the area. Again
though...most places should remain dry.
A few scattered storms will remain possible over central Missouri
tonight...before more widespread thunderstorm potential develops for
Sunday. The convective scenario for Sunday is somewhat complex...as
two distinct features will be in play. The first will be the
potential for a mesoscale convective vortex to drop south from northern Kansas/southern
Nebraska during the daytime hours Sunday. While model guidance is
in surprisingly good agreement regarding this feature...such
mesoscale convective system-induced features are notoriously fickle in "model world". The
other feature of note will be the broad subtropical vorticity that has
been moving slowly across Texas the last day or two. It is prognosticated
to move east-northeast with time into Arkansas...and the resulting
increase in moisture and lift with this vorticity should be enough to set
off scattered storms during the day Sunday. Still don't think
rainfall will be widespread enough to wash out most Holiday weekend
plans...but anyone with outdoor plans should remain aware of the
rain/lightning risk.
Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 233 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Temperatures Sunday and again Monday will be in the low to middle
80s...just a few degrees above normal for this time of year. As the
main upper level ridge axis lifts a bit northeast on
Monday...thunderstorm chances should decrease as the potential is
shunted to the north of the forecast area.
A several day long stretch of generally dry and seasonably warm
weather is expected for the first few days of the shortened
workweek...as southwest flow is established over much of the
nation's middle section. Despite an increase in low level
moisture...capping aloft will limit thunderstorm potential.
The next chance of widespread rainfall looks to arrive in the day
6/7 timeframe...as the western trough begins to translate east and
height falls start to overspread the region. Some significant
differences remain among the various members of the extended
guidance suite...especially with the strength/timing of various
shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries. That said...there
does seem to be broad agreement in a relatively active end to the
month of may and start to June...with several chances for rain
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 619 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Overall...mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Primary forecast challenge will be scattered showers and
storms today. A narrow band of showers and storms will move west
to east across the region this morning...with some isolated
redevelopment possible this afternoon. MVFR ceilings and visible will be
possible with any thunderstorms...though it will be short lived.
Otherwise...middle and high level clouds will linger across the
region for much of the forecast cycle. Winds will remain out of
the south/southeast with a low risk for low level wind shear late
tonight.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Update...gagan
short term...boxell
long term...boxell
aviation...gagan
