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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

issued at 924 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Made a quick update to reduce pops and pull thunder across
southwest MO into tonight.

Latest short term models are keeping almost all quantitative precipitation forecast south of the
border into this evening. This makes sense given the dry air mass
sampled by the 12z ksgf radiosonde observation. Short term models are also keeping
MUCAPE values at or below 100 j/kg. This will make thunder hard to
come by.


Short term...
issued at 239 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

A strong upper level low is currently moving slowly across the
Southern Plains this morning. Southerly flow ahead of this feature
is trying to advect moisture into the forecast area, but persistent
northeasterly flow at the surface--courtesy of high pressure over
the western Great Lakes--is keeping much of this moisture at Bay.
As of 2 am, a thin area of convection has developed from south of ict
into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, seemingly tied
to the 850 front and associated warm air advection and low level f-gen.

This convection may try to sneak into the far southwestern corners
of Cherokee and McDonald counties this morning, but most of
southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri should remain dry.
Somewhat better chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms will
begin to kick in later this afternoon into tonight, as the center of
the upper low gets closer to the region. Even then, however,
precipitation potential will largely be confined to areas south and
west of a Pittsburg to Branson line.

For the rest of the forecast area, a combination of somewhat chilly
air aloft and cloud cover moving up from the south will help limit
temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs generally around 60 over
southwestern Missouri, to the the low to mid 60s over central
Missouri, where cloud cover won't be as extensive. Overnight lows
in the mid to upper 40s will be the norm through Wednesday morning.

Long term...
issued at 239 am CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Rain will skirt the Missouri/Arkansas state line through the day
Tuesday, before the upper low finally moves east of the area and is
absorbed into a larger upper level trough over the eastern Continental U.S..
this will result in a warming trend for the region, with
temperatures on Wednesday warming into the upper 60s to around 70,
with low to mid 70s then expected from Thursday through the

Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday Onward, and quite likely
through the remainder of weekend. The only potential fly in the
ointment will be a weak shortwave traversing the northern plains
Friday and Saturday, which will try to push a weak cold front south
toward the region. A few of the global models are spitting out some
very light quantitative precipitation forecast over central and northern Missouri during this time,
but overall moisture return ahead of this feature is in question.
Even if this quantitative precipitation forecast comes to fruition, it shouldn't amount to more
than a few light showers or sprinkles.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1221 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist with scattered to broken high clouds.
Surface winds will remain brisk and gusty out of the east this
afternoon. Winds will then become light out of the northeast late
tonight before increasing out of the northeast Tuesday morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...boxell
long term...boxell

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