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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
643 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along brushy
and Beaver creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don't believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we're
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation's midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 0631 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: sfc high pressure centered over the
Ohio Vly will keep generally VFR conditions in place with S-se
winds. Given the humid air mass in place, an isolated shower/tstm
is possible but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention at any taf site. Some patchy fog will occur in low lying
areas but will dissipate quickly this morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Cramer
long term...Cramer

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