Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
issued at 217 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Remnants from southwestern edge of mesoscale convective system brought a few scattered
thunderstorms to parts of central Missouri earlier today...but
this has shifted off to the east. Dewpoints have been on the
increase with good moisture transport from the Gulf. Upper level
ridge pushing into the area with an embedded shortwave over the
Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. A few storms
were developing over Oklahoma and into western Arkansas but are
not expected to affect our forecast area.
The main focus with this forecast package will be with
thunderstorm chances as embedded shortwave energy undercuts the
upper ridge over the next couple of days...and then with the main
upper system moving in from the west late next week.
&&
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 217 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
For this evening...convection to our southwest is expected to
diminish with loss of instability later this evening and is not
expected to affect our forecast area. As low level jet develops
again tonight...another mesoscale convective system is expected to develop to our north
with remnants again possibly affecting central Missouri by Sunday
morning. Otherwise...will probably see an uptick in convection on
Sunday afternoon with better moisture in place...more instability
and more shortwave energy in the vicinity in association with the
shortwave undercutting the upper ridge. This activity will likely
linger into the day Monday. No severe weather is
expected...however some stronger updrafts may produce some small
hail and wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour.
Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 217 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
The middle of the week looks to be relatively dry with upper
trough beginning to push east from the West Coast. This system
looks to have some good jet structure with it and will need to
keep an eye on model trends for the potential of severe weather by
the end of next week. At this point...models are keeping the best
energy to the west and lifting it northwest of our forecast area.
Have still trended towards better rain chances beginning Thursday
into the weekend.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 615 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
VFR conditions expected through this forecast period. Currently
monitoring convection over eastern Oklahoma. Do not believe this
convection will make it into this area before we begin to lose our
instability this evening.
That brings US then to overnight convection. As the low level jet
begins to strengthen overnight...could have isolated to scattered
convection in the area. Right now...models have it initiating
north and west of here. Forecaster confidence is not high enough at
this time to include in any one location but will continue to monitor.
As for Sunday...while chances look better...still expect just
widely scattered afternoon convection and again confidence is not
high enough to mention at this time.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...lindenberg
short term...lindenberg
long term...lindenberg
aviation...gaede
