Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
428 am CDT Sat may 23 2015
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 427 am CDT Sat may 23 2015
Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.
The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern Continental U.S.. as a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.
Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.
Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the Southern Plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of Theta-E
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.
Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 427 am CDT Sat may 23 2015
The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.
Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. Ecm/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the Southern Plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.
The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.
Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1204 am CDT Sat may 23 2015
Complex and challenging forecast for the next 24 hours. See update
section above for specific thoughts on the short term forecast.
Jln will be prone to brief bouts of MVFR cigs the rest of tonight,
otherwise VFR will be the rule with cigs gradually lowering.
Heading into Saturday, a smattering of light showers is possible
near the aerodromes, but the bulk of any organized rain/thunder
will remain to our west. This will change Saturday evening as the
eastern edge of developing showers/storms will approach the jln
Aerodrome. VFR will be the rule Saturday into Saturday evening,
with MVFR potential increasing at jln after dark.
MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for