Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Synopsis...
issued at 0234 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Morning convection which brought slow moving thunderstorms and
localized significant flash flooding had dissipated by 10 am. A
few convective showers have developed early this afternoon as
afternoon instability has increased, with surface based CAPES
running around 3000 j/kg. Certainly a different atmosphere out
there today than what we have had over the past week, with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s.

Main forecast focus will be with scattered convection this
afternoon/tonight and with temperatures this week.

&&

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 0234 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Scattered convection is expected again this afternoon and evening
across the area with weak shortwave energy pushing across southern
Missouri, increased instability and any remnant outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection all aiding in convective
development. Due to weak flow aloft and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to
1.6 in. Range, any storms that develop will be slow to move and
have the potential of producing heavy rain. As was the case last
night into this morning, localized flash flooding can not be ruled
out. Models do hang on to some weak upper level energy underneath
an upper level ridge on Monday and while I wouldn't completely
rule out some isolated convection, am not including in overall pop
forecast at this time.



Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 0234 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

This upper level weak energy will linger over the area within the
upper level ridge through midweek, but precipitation chances again
look to be pretty low at this time. Main axis of precipitation
will remain to our west through the week with temperatures in the
upper 80s just about each day. Heat index values will likely reach
the mid 90s during this time period.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1146 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail for all taf sites across the
Missouri Ozarks. Have included a mention of vcsh for jln between
21z to 02z and thunderstorms in the vicinity for sgf and bbg. The better potential for
scattered convection will be closer to bbg and have included a
tempo group from 21z to 02z with a brief -tsra and MVFR
conditions. Skies will return to mostly clear tonight through
tomrorow morning. Winds will remain southerly and light.



&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Synopsis...lindenberg
short term...lindenberg
long term...lindenberg
aviation...Griffin

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations