AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPING CUMULUS ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SUBTLE WEAK
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR NEVADA TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
SPRINGFIELD TO AVA WHERE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER TOWARDS WEST PLAINS. THIS
WEAK FEATURE ALONG WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL VORT WAVE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS MAY DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...RUNNING ABOUT 1000
J/KG AND SHEAR IS WEAK. WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRONG PULSE STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.
THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET BUT WILL WATCH OUT
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS KANSAS FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION THAT WAY. THE 12Z NAM..GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ALL SHOW THIS MORE PRONOUNCE WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND
DEVELOPING A COMPLEX OF STORMS. THIS CONVECTION COMPLEX MAY HOLD
TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING MIDDAY TOMORROW...THIS MAY
DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. AGAIN...WILL
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL
SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRETTY MUCH SHUT OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED
STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE AROUND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 90S. THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TERMINAL VICINITIES.
CUMULUS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD DECKS NEAR 5
KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...FOSTER
