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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 0206 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

The system that brought a wintry mix of precipitation last night
and today will continue to move away from the region tonight.
Freezing drizzle will remain possible early this evening across
far south-central Missouri, but the passage of an 850 mb front
should shut that potential down rather quickly. We have gone on
the high side of temperature guidance for overnight lows as we
are expecting abundant mid and high level cloud cover. Due to this
expected cloud cover, we have also removed the mention of fog.

Digging short wave energy will then approach from the west late
tonight and will track across the Ozarks on Monday. Models are
indicating good lift in a fairly broad layer as this wave
approaches. We have therefore introduced slight chance pops for
late tonight and Monday. Pops may need to be increased if lift
and/or moisture increases even further. Temperature profiles
should be warm enough for precipitation to fall as light rain
showers. Temperatures will be tricky on Monday with clouds
expected to decrease from west to east across the area. We will
likely see a good spread with highs in the middle to upper 50s
along the I-49 corridor, but in the upper 40s across the Eastern
Ozarks.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 0206 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Yet another short wave trough will slide southeast across the
region from later Monday night into early Tuesday. While the best
lift with this wave will remain to our north and east, we are
still expecting some rain shower potential across the Ozarks.
Depending on how much rain falls late Monday night/Tuesday
morning, fire weather may become a concern in the afternoon due to
brisk winds and low humidity.

Dry weather and a warming trend can then be expected for the
remainder of the work week as upper level ridging commences. High
temperatures should have no problem getting into the 60s by
Thursday with lower 70s quite possible over western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas. With increasing southerly winds also
expected, fire weather will remain a concern throughout the week.

Global models then show at least a weak signal for precipitation
next weekend. There may even be enough instability for some
thunder.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1136 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: back edge of clouds are just west of
the ksgf terminal making steady progress eastward and should be
through ksgf early this afternoon and based on simple extrapolation
be through kbbg between 21z-23z. Still expect some fzdz/dz at kbbg
before the clouds clear.

There will be a period of VFR flight conditions through this
evening. Biggest question will be amount of clouds to work back into
the area latter tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and
its impact on the potential for fog development. Models are now
showing the potential for a mid deck of clouds to works its way into
the area. Winds are expected to be light and depending upon timing
of clouds, visibilities could drop late this evening into the
overnight hours. For now will keep MVFR visibilities and allow next
forecast to get a better handle on clouds tonight. If they do not
materialize will likely see some IFR visibilities. Thus
confidence not high for these later periods. In fact, a few of the
models are indicating the potential for precipitation between
12z-18z Monday, but confidence not high enough this occurring so
will not mention.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for moz082-
083-096>098-105-106.

Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...schaumann
long term...schaumann
aviation...raberding

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