Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 205 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Subtle shortwave over the Central High plains will shift east-east-southeast
into southeast Kansas and western MO by late afternoon/early evening. Prognosticated
soundings show steep low level lapse rates with uncapped MLCAPE
of close to 1000 j/kg (00z nam) during this time...so after
yesterday's fun...certainly seems possible to have some scattered
afternoon pulse convection so have some low end probability of precipitation to cover
this.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 200 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Still looks like some convection will try to edge southeast into
the region late Wednesday night and especially Thursday as a upper vorticity moves
east-southeast from Kansas into far SW MO late in the day. The air mass will be
similar to what we expect to have today...so expect more of the
same...possibly with more coverage in the afternoon with daytime
heating.
An amplified western Continental U.S. Trough and a downstream upper ridge over
our area will set the stage for a very warm Friday-weekend period.
Again...can't rule out some isolated afternoon convection...but
right underneath an upper ridge...warmer middle level temperatures
will be a more hostile environment for updrafts. Afternoon heat
index values will reach the middle 90s for many areas over the
upcoming weekend.
The upper ridge is prognosticated to start to become suppressed to the
south by Mon-Tue...but at this point not enough to mention
significant rain/thunderstorm chances.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 539 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Generally VFR conditions and light southeast winds can be expected
over the next 24 hours. Similar to Tuesday...a few afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible today in a scattered fashion...and
have utilized a prob30 group during peak heating this afternoon to
account. Any activity that develops during the afternoon should
dissipate after sunset tonight. Some thunderstorm activity may
occur west of the region late tonight and begin to approach the
terminals from the west near the end of the taf cycle. Given
remaining questions of location/timing/coverage of this
activity...have left this out of the tafs for now. This potential
will be monitored and may need to be added in later forecasts.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...dsa
long term...dsa
aviation...boxell
