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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 am CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

issued at 1008 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in The Fort Leonard wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00z
ksgf radiosonde observation indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the Eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the Eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn't appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts. This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon. A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110. Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an excessive heat warning for the current
advisory area, and an extension of the warning where one is already
out. While this the extension is really for tomorrow's heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity's sake. In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 252 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

By Wednesday, a Stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri. Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time. Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
much more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1158 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
prob30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for moz055>058-

Kansas...excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ksz073-097-101.



short term...boxell
long term...boxell

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