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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 0205 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

A cold front has made it almost all the way through the region
except for the southeast corner of the cwfa. Areas of light to
moderate Post frontal rainfall will continue tonight into Saturday
with somewhat higher amounts closer to the front over the southern
cwfa. Areal flood warnings cover the expected or ongoing low water
crossing flooding. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch going, but wouldn't be
surprised if part of it is cancelled early in a piecemeal fashion
from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning with the focus of
heavier rain gradually shifting south of the area.

Raw/chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday.
Temperatures well back behind the front have stabilized with the
sfc freezing line just west and NW of the cwfa. Will continue to
mention the chance of a small ice accumulation on elevated
surfaces over the far NW cwfa based on progged temperatures
dropping just a bit more. Used a mix of 3hr consensus MOS and NAM
guidance for temperatures.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 0205 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

An upper level low over the Great Basin/western Continental U.S. Is progged
to finally kick east into the Central Plains Mon finally shifting
the last of the precip off to the east Monday night with a
frontal passage. Sfc high pressure will move through cwfa late Wed
and Thu. Despite the passage of an upper level shortwave Thu a dry
air mass will greatly limit any rain chances. South winds will
increase Fri with a modest warming trend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 0507 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the 00z taf with upper
level energy continuing to push through the area. Being on the
cool side of the front, expecting IFR stratus and periods of light
rain/drizzle to persist through the period. Freezing line should
stay off to the northwest with little movement from current
position through the 24 hour period, so not expecting any freezing
rain at any of the taf sites.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for moz055>058-

Kansas...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ksz073-097-101.



Short term...dsa
long term...dsa

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