Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
215 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014
..warm into Sunday morning then much colder with light freezing
rain potential Sunday night into Monday morning...
Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 215 PM CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Breezy southwesterly winds have developed across the region this
afternoon ushering in a warmer air mass. Mid afternoon
temperatures were in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
The upper level ridge will move over the region Saturday and
850 mb temperatures will warm into the teens celsius. This will
allow highs to top out well into the 60s Saturday afternoon and
some locations may approach the 70 degree mark.
Some low level stratus clouds may develop during the overnight and
morning hours, but the low level moisture return will be very
shallow so any clouds that develop should burn off quickly by the
afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rise quickly. Lows
Saturday night into Sunday morning will stay in the 50s as the
warmer air mass remains over the region.
Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 215 PM CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Temperatures will warm quickly into the 60s Sunday morning, but
then big changes will occur Sunday afternoon into the night time
hours as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. As the cold
front moves south temperatures will fall quickly from north to
south behind the front Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Breezy south to southwesterly winds will continue ahead of the
front this weekend, then breezy northerly winds will develop
behind the frontal passage.
Light rain or drizzle will develop along and right behind the
front as it pushes south through the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will fall quickly behind the front into the
20s Sunday night into Monday morning. Low level moisture will
remain high behind the front as the 850 mb front lags behind the
surface front and an upper level shortwave trough tracks east
across the plains Sunday night into Monday. Mid level moisture
will be quite dry with this system, so expecting more drizzle or
freezing drizzle to occur due to the dry mid levels. However, there
may be periods of light rain or freezing rain at times as the lift
increases with the shortwave.
Expecting at least a band or period of freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning, but there are
questions on how long, as strong dry air advection at the surface
will start to overspread the area Monday morning and the drizzle
may have a hard time overcoming the dry air advection. So expect
the precipitation to taper off as this occurs.
There will be a period of freezing drizzle or light freeze rain
from around midnight Sunday night into Monday morning before the
dry air advection kicks in. A light glaze to a few hundredths of
an inch of ice will be possible generally along and south of I-44
on elevated surfaces. This light precipitation could also create a
few slick spots on a roadways for the Monday morning commute.
Also, breezy northerly winds will occur behind the front and with
temperatures dropping into the 20s. This may lead to the potential
for patchy black ice.
A much colder air mass will spread into the area on Monday as
highs only warm into the lower 30s and lows drop into the 20s both
Monday and Tuesday mornings.
A gradual warming trend will occur Tuesday into the middle of
next week as highs warm back into the 40s and 50s. An upper level
disturbance may move through the region towards the end of next
week bringing the next chances for rain to the area. Medium range
models have been very inconsistent with each other and with run
to run with this system.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1128 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Pilots can expect VFR conditions but windy conditions this
afternoon then the potential of MVFR ceilings late tonight.
Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will persist tonight and
increase again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will impact the
area evening into Saturday morning.
The southerly winds will bring increasing low level moisture. This
may area result in the development of stratus later tonight.
Pilots should be prepared for areas of MVFR ceilings and perhaps
some light fog late tonight into Saturday morning.