Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
849 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

issued at 0847 PM CST Tuesday Dec 01 2015

Have bumped up the cloud amounts in the grids/products based on
latest satellite trends. Low level relative humidity should continue to increase
the remainder of the evening and overnight with the shortwave
pushing through.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 0237 PM CST Tuesday Dec 01 2015

The upper level low that Sat over the southwestern portions of the
US through the weekend is finally on its way out. A few high clouds
have been observed, however, a much better day today than we've seen
in a while.

This upper level low will continue to move north and east through the
short term. Before it does, one more wave will swing through the
region. Models appear dry, however, there may be some increase in
cloud cover overnight tonight. This may help keep overnight lows a
tad warmer, especially over central Missouri and the Eastern Ozarks.

Clouds should quickly clear the region by Wednesday morning as the
wave continues to move out of our region. In its wake, sunny skies can
be expected though temperatures will be cool.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 0237 PM CST Tuesday Dec 01 2015

As the upper level low continues to move eastward, a dry northwest
flow will develop and continue through late week. Over time, "trofing"
will eventually be replaced with a short wave ridge ahead of the next
trof due into the region by Sunday. Guidance is still indicating a
signal for precip late this weekend and into early next week as the
short wave closes off and slides (depending on which global you pick)
southeast/east of the region. Confidence is low at this time given
some differences among the globals. At this juncture, kept low pops
and quantitative precipitation forecast to compensate for the uncertainty.

The GFS has the aforementioned system as a rather progressive one
before it closes off. The European model (ecmwf) shows the close off a little sooner
and closer to our area, however, also shows a progressive system. The
speed of the system should be watched as time nears. If a slower
solution is realized, energy may swing around the northwest side of
the upper level low causing an uptick in clouds and perhaps an
introduction to additional pops in the future. For now, current thinking
is the system will not slow too much as a mid level wave (kicker) will
help boot this feature east early next week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 0529 PM CST Tuesday Dec 01 2015

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: a surface low will push across Iowa and
southern Wisconsin tonight. Moisture wrapping around this low has
been tracking through northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late
this afternoon. These clouds will likely sweep into the taf sites
late tonight after 09z bringing an MVFR deck of clouds with it.
Ceiling heights should range from 2k-3k feet. These MVFR ceilings
will last through the morning hours before rising and scattering out
around 18z Wednesday. Surface winds will be southwest tonight under
10 knots then northwest on Wednesday with speeds around 12-15kts.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Frye
long term...Frye

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations