Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
457 am CST Fri Dec 19 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 315 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Foggy conditions are on going across the region early this
morning, with dense fog occurring generally along and west of
Highway 65 and across far southern Missouri. The fog will
continue into the mid morning hours and will continue the dense
fog advisory until 10am this morning. There will also be pockets
of drizzle that occurring this morning. Temperatures will hold
steady in the middle 30s to near the freezing mark this morning, so
not expecting much in the way of freezing drizzle impacts.

Cloudy conditions will continue to occur across the area today
into Saturday. The clouds will limit warming again today with
highs topping out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s and will keep lows
in the middle 30s tonight.

An upper level trough is currently pushing into the Southern
Plains early this morning. The trough will spread east today and
through the region tonight. The axis of the trough and the best
moisture and lift will remain south of the area. Models continue
to keep all measurable precipitation to the south of the area,
which makes since with the track of the system. However, low level
moisture, hence the cloudy conditions, will remain over the area
today and tonight. As the wave tracks across the area there will
be enough lift within this low level moisture to generate some
drizzle into early Saturday morning. There could also be some
patchy fog develop as this low level moisture builds down
overnight. Temperatures are generally expected to remain above
freezing so not expecting much in the way of freezing drizzle.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 315 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Drizzle and clouds will remain possible across the area into
Saturday morning, but as the trough spreads east of the area a
drier air mass will start to move in and there should start to be
some breaks in the clouds Saturday afternoon.

Warmer conditions will then spread into the area for Sunday and
Monday as highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s occur. An upper
level low will then track towards and then through the region
Sunday night into Tuesday. Rain chances will increase as this
system tracks through the area Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain warm enough for all rain through Tuesday morning.

On the back side of the low cooler conditions will start to spread
into the area. Precipitation is expected to wrap around the back
side of the low. Models differ in the exact location of the low
and as a result differ on how much of the area can see this
precipitation. At this time think the best potential will be
central Missouri, and feel it will be light in nature mainly
sprinkles and or flurries Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Upper level ridging will then build over the central U.S. On
Thursday bringing warmer conditions back to the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 454 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Areas of dense fog and IFR/LIFR stratus continued across the area
early this morning, periodically moving across the terminal
locations. Don't see stratus improving much today, but
visibilities will probably begin to improve by late morning.
Fog is expected to redevelop later tonight at the three taf sites
once again and could be dense. For now have dropped back down to
1sm after 07z.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for moz055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

Kansas...dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for ksz073-097-
101.

&&

$$

Short term...wise
long term...wise
aviation...lindenberg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations