Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
..update for aviation...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 230 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Getting a bit harder and harder to see how we will get much in the
way of shower/thunderstorm chances today. Even modest convection has
yet to break out anywhere nearby over the plains overnight where a
stronger low level jet exists. A very subtle disturbance may try
to work its way southeast ahead of a building upper ridge over the
central Continental U.S.. won't make many changes to the overall forecast...with
modest probability of precipitation over the region today...slightly focused/higher over
the western County warning forecast area. With time...as the upper ridge builds over the
region late today...rain chances will become more limited.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 230 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
The upper ridge will remain in place over the Southern Plains
through the middle MS valley region through Sunday as an average/mean
longwave trough remains over the western Continental U.S. Or just off the
West Coast. Can't rule out some isolated diurnally driven
afternoon convection through early next week but there will be
little to focus anything synoptically. Afternoon heat index values
will likely reach the middle 90s for many areas on a daily basis for
much of the extended period.
There may be a bit of weakening of the upper ridge toward
Monday/Tue/Wed with global models flattening the ridge then shifting
it back toward the west a bit. Still...there is no synoptic scale
feature evident to hang your hat on for precipitation until maybe late
Wednesday/day 7 at the earliest.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 547 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Flight conditions should generally remain VFR through the next 24
hours. Southerly winds will pick up a bit more today than past
days...with some gusts to around 20 knots possible by afternoon at
Joplin. Thunderstorms chances are somewhat questionable
today...with a low potential for activity through this evening.
Chances appear too low at this time to justify including mention
for any particular terminal. If/when activity develops...later
updates may be needed to add thunderstorms and rain mention.
&&
Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...dsa
long term...dsa
aviation...boxell
