Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

..seasonably warm Summer weather today and Monday...Unsettled and
wet weather expected middle and end of this week...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 259 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Another fairly quiet day is in the forecast for the Missouri
Ozarks today. There are no changes in the on going forecast. Weak
high pressure is still in control of our weather pattern.
Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer today with most
locations reaching the lower and middle 90s. The heat index will
be fairly close to the actual air temperature once again. Like
yesterday...will not rule out a very isolated shower or rouge
storm to pop up across the central Missouri area down to the
Eastern Ozarks. The chance of rain will be about 10 percent at
best. Most areas will remain just dry and sunny today. A weak
disturbance will be passing by the region to our northeast tonight
and there may be a slight chance for a shower or storm to brush by
our central Missouri area late tonight as well.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 259 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

The upper level ridge will remain across the southwestern U.S. And
a trough will remain across the Great Lakes region for most of
this week. A weak frontal boundary will kinda sag into the
Missouri Ozarks area starting Monday night into Tuesday. The first
of several shortwave energy will begin to affect the area starting
Tuesday. This will bring the chance for scattered thunderstorms
especially areas north of Highway 60 Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday

Another shortwave may move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday...followed by another stronger wave Thursday night into
Friday. The overall message for the middle and end of this
upcoming week will be the increasing potential for several rounds
of thunderstorms. Overall average rainfall expected will be 1 to 3
inches with isolated higher amounts possible this week.
Will have to continue to watch for trends for any possible Hydro
issues due to several rounds of thunderstorms expected over the
same areas. At this organized severe weather is expected.

Model guidance has trended cooler with the temperatures by the end
of the week and next weekend. A piece of a Canadian airmass is
going to try to sneak into the area by the end of the week. Highs may
be in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s which is
very pleasant for this time of year!


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Light/variable winds will give way to southwest winds during the
day Sunday, becoming gusty at times. Aside from a few mid/high
clouds, no ceiling/visibility restrictions are expected. There is
a slight chance for isolated/widely scattered shower/storm
development east of the taf sites Sunday afternoon.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Griffin
long term...Griffin

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations