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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Short term...(through early this evening)
issued at 250 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight. Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region. 18z special radiosonde observation was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize. Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat. The 18z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts. Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

Long term...(friday through thursday)
issued at 333 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of Highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, Kansas to the Lake of The Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps US off. This should allow US to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the High Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the Woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the European model (ecmwf) is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed Max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the gefs/Gem, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1157 am CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...boxell
long term...gagan