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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 am CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

..update for thunderstorm potential this afternoon...

issued at 1110 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
raobs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 j/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the severe weather potential statement.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 mb
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 315 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect Post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 600 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

For the ksgf, kjln, and kbbg tafs: low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the kbbg
and ksgf taf sites early this morning and may clip the kjln site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the ksgf site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Foster
long term...Foster

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