Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
issued at 205 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
A strong cold front was sweeping across the forecast area early
this afternoon, with temperatures rapidly dropping in its wake as
brisk northwest winds usher in a much colder airmass.
Expect temperatures to continue to fall into the 20s by this
evening, eventually dropping into the low to mid teens by Monday
morning. With upstream obs across Nebraska already in the low
single digits, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a few
locations across southeastern Kansas may flirt with sub-10 degree
Light precipitation has decreased somewhat with the frontal
passage this afternoon, though patchy drizzle/flurries/light snow
showers will remain possible through the evening and first part of
the overnight. The best chance for light snow late this evening
will be across central Missouri as the upper level trough axis
swings through. Little in the way of accumulation is expected.
Long term...(monday through sunday)
issued at 205 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
A roller coaster ride in temperatures is expected during the
upcoming week. Monday will start off well on the cold side of
average as surface high pressure passes through the region.
Southerly winds will gradually develop Monday afternoon/evening
and prevent temperatures from plummeting Monday night. A mild
Tuesday is in store as southwesterly winds and low level warm
advection spread over the region ahead of our next storm system.
A strong cold front will move through during the day on
Wednesday. Exact timing is still in question and will have a big
impact on what temperatures will be like on Wednesday afternoon.
The 12z GFS and Gem are the quickest while the 12z NAM and European model (ecmwf)
are slower. The warmest temperatures of the day for any given
location will be right before the front passes through that
location with temperatures falling sharply behind the front. At
this time have the front moving up to the I-44 corridor by midday
and clearing through southern Missouri by sunset.
Strong mid level lift will develop a band of snow across the
Central Plains Wednesday afternoon and moving southeastward
Wednesday evening. Confidence is increasing for a round of light
snow to affect the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas Wednesday
night. Light snow will begin to affect portions of southeast
Kansas and central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon. This area
of light snow will become widespread and move southeastward across
the entire area Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. The light
snow will end by early Thursday morning over far southern
Average quantitative precipitation forecast Wednesday night will be between 0.10 to 0.25 inch of
liquid indicating by the models. This would translate to
widespread light snow of 1 to 2 inches across the entire area.
Temperatures Wednesday night will drop down into the middle to
upper teens with the light snow which may cause travel impacts.
Highs on Thursday will not get above freezing for most locations
followed by another cold night Thursday night. A warming trend
begins on Friday and into the weekend. Southerly winds will return
and upper level height rises will bring above average temperatures
for the weekend with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Another
shortwave moving across the Midwest may bring a few sprinkles or
showers late to the Eastern Ozarks late in the weekend.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1145 am CST sun Feb 1 2015
Flight conditions will initially bounce around between MVFR and
IFR this afternoon, with both vis and cigs riding the line between
categories. Conditions should then improve to MVFR by evening, and
remain there overnight. A brief period of light snow/flurries is
possible at sgf late tonight, though at this time it doesn't
appear that significant impacts will result.
In addition to cig/vis challenges, gusty west to northwest winds
will remain a concern through evening. Expect gusts to around 30
knots this afternoon.