Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 am CDT Wed Jun 3 2015

..12z aviation forecast update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 327 am CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

A mainly quiet morning across the region with two areas of
convection located to our north. The first is a large scale
mesoscale convective system (mcs) moving through Nebraska. The
second is widely scattered showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of a a few smaller scale shortwaves across northwestern
Missouri. The mesoscale convective system across Nebraska will continue to turn to the
southeast and weaken with time as instability becomes weaker. The
smattering of convection appears as though it will stick around
for a bit as the low level jet veers and maintains weak
convergence.

Will need to monitor for a few showers and storms moving into our
central Missouri counties through midday. Have introduced slight
chance pops for the time being, with the potential for an increase
if latest runs of the hrrr pan out.

A warmer day is on tap for the region. We will once again deal
with cloud cover, at least for the first half of today. Stratus
continues to expand from northern Missouri through the Eastern
Ozarks. This deck will eventually scatter out this afternoon with
highs in the 70s and 80s expected.

Another round of nocturnal convection is expected to our north
again tonight. Initiation of storms will be across northern Kansas
into Nebraska, which should congeal into another mesoscale convective system with time.
Traditional system motion vectors are a bit sluggish, with a light
southeast movement with time and indicative of a slow moving
system. If a cold pool can get organized, the forward propagating
system motion vectors are a bit stronger (25kt) to the south
southeast. If an organized cold pool sustain itself, a decaying
mesoscale convective system could affect the northwestern third of the area. With an
overall lack in instability across the area, there is not much of
a severe risk and the current placement of the Storm Prediction Center marginal area
looks good.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 327 am CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Overall, no major changes to the going forecast. Upper ridging
will dominate our weather regime with nighttime and early morning
clusters of storms riding to the ridge to the southeast and affect
portions of central Missouri and the Eastern Ozarks. Pops were
largely unchanged Friday and Saturday. Heading into the weekend,
there is more uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern. The 00z
suite of model output is a bit slower in pushing a cold front into
the region, holding off until Sunday night into early next week.
As a result, above average temperatures are expected this weekend,
with continued nighttime/early morning rain chances across central
Missouri and the Eastern Ozarks.

The forecast for early next week has trended a bit more
pessimistic given the range of potential solutions. A front
passage is expected with additional chances for showers/storms.
Temperatures will remain at/just above the seasonal averages.

At this juncture, the risk for severe weather is on the low side
and dependent on mesoscale convective system evolution and motion. That said, this could
change on any given day depending on where mesoscale convective system outflow boundaries
eventually end up. Staying up to date on the latest forecasts is
advised.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 601 am CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings for sgf through 14z with an
improvement by mid to late morning. At bbg...expect LIFR ceilings
through 14z with an improvement by mid to late morning. All taf
sites will see VFR by midday with scattered clouds between 3k to
4k by the afternoon. Some convection is possible across central
Missouri this afternoon but should stay north of the 3 main taf
sites for today. There may be some light MVFR fog and ceilings again for
bbg late tonight after 09z. Winds will remain southeasterly around
10 knots or less through the next 24 hours.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...gagan
long term...gagan
aviation...Griffin

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations