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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

..12z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 0256 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

A quiet fall pattern will persist for the next couple of days as
upper level northwesterly flow remains entrenched over the
eastern United States. Dry conditions and clear skies will
therefore continue across the Ozarks into tonight. Temperatures
will be very close to, or slightly above normal for the middle of
October. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 70s
across the Eastern Ozarks to the upper 70s along the I-49

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 0256 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Above normal temperatures are then expected for Wednesday and
especially Thursday as surface winds turn around to the south and
southwest. 850 mb temperatures will warm into the middle to upper
teens celsius which will support highs in the middle 70s to lower
80s. It would not be surprising to see a middle 80 reading or two
trickle in from southwestern Missouri on Thursday.

Meanwhile, short wave energy diving southeast across the Great
Lakes will push a cold front through the Ozarks from later
Thursday into Thursday evening. Moisture quality will be rather
poor with the front so pops were kept around 20 percent.

A Canadian air mass will filter into the region behind the front
for the upcoming weekend. The main surface high should track
over the Ohio Valley which will Bode well for frost potential to
our north and east. We will have to watch the Eastern Ozarks as a
night of light winds could result in some frost potential this
weekend. Generally speaking, we are looking at highs in the upper
50s and 60s with lows in the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Long wave charts then indicate a pattern shift as we head into
next week. The upper level flow will become more zonal from
early to mid- week. This will result in a dry and breezy start to
the week along with a warming trend. Global models then try and
bring fairly vigorous short wave energy into the central U.S. From
Tuesday into Wednesday. This may be our next good shot at showers
and thunderstorms.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 0607 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Clear skies are expected through the next 24 hours, as cool and
dry air continues to filter into the area. North winds will become
gusty for a few hours later this morning into the afternoon hours,
through overall speeds should be lower than yesterday. Wind speeds
should drop off quickly early this evening, with light and
variable winds expected overnight.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...schaumann
long term...schaumann

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