Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS 
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO
45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW 
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND 
REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED 
MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS
WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN 
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. 
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY 
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT.

WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH 
SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET 
OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS 
FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS 
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO 
VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE 
MTNS...WITH LESS EAST.


TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER 
30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN 
THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED 
NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN 
ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN 
THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR 
RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY 
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON 
TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE 
FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE 
GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS 
ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT 
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE 
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT 
THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR
SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER
LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY
NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO 
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FINE FUELS WILL BE
SLOWLY DRYING AND FUEL MOISTURE MAY REACH CRITICAL VALUES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS
COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
FIRE WEATHER...KK

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations