Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
609 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015
cold high pressure builds from the west through Sunday. Several
cold fronts will move through the Ohio Valley for the up coming
work week. Temperatures will warm through the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry airmass in place today with high pressure in control. Clouds
will increase from west to east tonight as cold front approaches
tonight. Ramped up probability of precipitation slightly...especially over the eastern
mountains for late tonight as moisture and dynamics come together
for a good chance for showers...with rain snow mix over the higher
terrain. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts should remain around a quarter inch or less.
Generally accepted inherited temperatures with minor tweaks.
Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
pattern continues to undergo change this period from a deep
eastern upper trough and western upper ridge...to a more zonal
type flow aloft. One last clipper like system drops southeast
later Tuesday and Tuesday night just north and east of our
area...bringing a weak front across Tuesday night. While moisture
is available into this system...the isentropic lift and warm
advection north of the track of the surface low will keep most of
the attending light showers with the system in the north. Models
in reasonable agreement with this system. High pressure follows
Wednesday before the real pattern change takes effect. Up to this
point temperatures will undergo a warming trend...even behind the
weak front...as air becomes increasingly Pacific in nature.
By Thursday...the first in a series of Pacific systems rolls across
the nation with zonal flow aloft taking control. In this
pattern...surface high pressure becomes anchored off the southeast
coast of the nation...with the Gulf of Mexico opening up with
southerly flow ahead of the system. While the exact strength and
track of the system is questionable...it will bring a better
chance for showers Thursday...and perhaps a thunderstorm...with
quite warm temperatures.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
generally followed HPC which gives a nod to a more amplified
solution for late week and into Easter weekend. While a significant
warmup is expected middle to late week...it may be hampered by showers
on late Thursday and into early Friday as a pesky disturbance comes
out of the S stream before heights can build. The main system will
be Friday evening. A deepening low is expected to track into the
Great Lakes as a short wave trough GOES negative tilt. The resulting strong
baroclinic zone and low level jet may produce a healthy line of convective
showers with it and this will need to be monitored in the coming
days. The cold front quickly sweeps through Friday night. The weekend
is shaping up to be rather cool...especially on Sunday with even the
potential for more snow showers Saturday night and early Sunday.
Aviation /10z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR today with light winds. Then after 03z...ceiling and visby values
lower as front approaches from the west. Will see MVFR conditions
by the end of the period for all sites.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Monday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of clouds and precipitation later tonight may
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 03/29/15
UTC 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1hrly 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Monday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.