Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
325 am EDT sun Oct 26 2014
high pressure crosses Sunday. Warmer to start the work week. A
cold fronts crosses Tuesday night. High pressure crosses Thursday.
An even stronger cold front crosses on all hollows evening.
Near term /through tonight/...
an axis of dense fog persisted just ahead of a cold front as the
front became bogged down west of the Ohio River. The front did mix
through over the mountains...and will mix through across The
Lowlands by daybreak...or shortly thereafter...and the fog will not
become any more of a problem before it is mixed out. Gusty winds
over the mountains...mainly the ridges...will gradually diminish
through this afternoon. Patchy stratocu in and just west of the
mountains on upslope flow will break up by 12z this morning...as
drier air continues to advect in.
Otherwise its easy like Sunday morning as high pressure sails across
the area this period...with not so much as a cloud in the sky once
the stratocu is gone. The front lays down west to east across the Tennessee
Valley today...before starting to return as a warm front tonight.
This will bring some high cloud toward 12z Monday. Valley fog is
possible late tonight...mainly in the deeper better sheltered
valleys east of the Ohio River.
Temperatures looked good...with just a little of the mav blended in
for lows tonight...to better accent a Ridge Valley difference.
Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure shifts east on Monday with a return to
southwest flow and increased warm air advection. Results in little
chances for precipitation for Monday...with an upswing in daytime
highs as warmer airmass nudges into the Ohio Valley. Many
areas...especially in The Lowlands could touch the 80 degree mark.
Front approaches Tuesday afternoon from the west. Leaned more on the
slower NAM solution over the more progressive GFS as far as tracking
feature across the forecast area. This continues the trend set by
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. Brings a series of cold
fronts through...each followed by cooler temperatures under Canadian
high pressure which will bring temperatures to well below normal by
Friday. Precipitation wise...with northwest flow dominating...moisture
return from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of these fronts will be limited
with correspondingly light quantitative precipitation forecast. First front this period uses the
slower models over the faster GFS and will come across early
Wednesday...preceded by showers Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. Another front will come across Friday with even less
moisture available...so any light showers will be widely scattered.
Temperatures will get progressively cooler this period. We will
start with lower 60s for highs Wednesday and only near 50 by Friday.
Lows will start in the lower 50s Tuesday night and in the 30s by
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
dry cold front passes pkb at start of forecast...heights 08z...and then will
mix through the remainder of the area 08-09z. This will keep the
wind stirred up and prevent fog from forming. Patchy MVFR stratocu
in the mountains will break up toward 12z. Otherwise VFR with clear
sky the balance of the period...except MVFR fog may start to form in
the Tygart Valley by 06z Monday.
Light west to SW surface flow will become light west to northwest behind the cold
front overnight and remain so through Sunday...before becoming calm
Sunday night. West to northwest surface winds will be gusty in the mountains
overnight into Sunday. Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft will become
light to moderate northwest Sunday afternoon.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Monday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of ceiling changes in the mountains may vary
overnight. There is some uncertainty on MVFR visibility in the Tygart
Valley toward 06z Monday.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 10/26/14
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency M h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency l l l l l h h h h h h h
ekn consistency M h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Monday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.