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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NOW HAVE EVIDENCE OF THE STRATUS DECK SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FEW/SCT SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
BELOW 2500FT. REWORKED THE POPS GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE QUIETER PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE IN
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON/18Z TIME FRAME TODAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON 
THE HRRR MODEL GIVEN THAT IT HAD INITIALIZED VERY WELL. TYPICALLY 
LIKE THE OUTPUT OF THIS MODEL WHEN THAT HAPPENS. ALSO...SINCE THE 
NAM MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL...DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS 
PROVED VALUABLE IN THE PATTERN OF THE POP CONSTRUCTION THIS MORNING. 
THIS HELPED TO ADD SOME DEFINITION TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWLANDS SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO 
RIVER. 

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE 
HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY IN THE PERIODIC RAIN. 
MAY NOT COME OUT OF THE 70S OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN 
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA COULD END UP WARMER THAN 
THE OHIO RIVER SITES. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDS DOWN BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS AND LEANED ON THIS...BUT ALWAYS A LITTLE HESITANT
IN A DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON 
MONDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...A WARM AND HUMID 
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS 
MONDAY...AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 80S. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE 
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE 
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER UPPER 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECT US TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE 
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY 
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO HIGH POPS 
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
NIGHT ARE IN ORDER. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 
COOL FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND 
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT 
MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAR 
SOUTH FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH 
TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH 
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM 
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT 
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH 
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY 
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOW SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXPECTED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK
BACK IN OHIO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL BE WATCHING UNI
AND THEN THE RIVER TERMINALS OF PKB AND HTS TO DO THE SAME AND
CARRY THIS IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON. CARRYING VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW AS THE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THUNDER CHANCES ARE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS
HOWEVER. 

EXPECT AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET UP THIS EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THOSE CEILINGS COME
DOWN...FEEL THE VISIBILITIES CAN COME DOWN AS WELL WITH THE RECENT
RAIN. NO LIFR FOG DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26

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