Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
517 am EDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
a cold front crosses today. Mainly dry through the weekend except
for low chances across the north.
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front crossing the area this morning with scattered showers
and storms. Expect the front to exit the eastern mountains by
early afternoon. Meanwhile...brief heavy downpours will be
possible withe the heavier storms.
Drier air filters if behind the front from the northwest providing
dry conditions for the rest of the day through tonight. Clearing
will spread from west to east by middle day trough this evening.
Temperatures will moderate into the middle 80s this afternoon...and
into the middle 60s tonight. Used super blend for temperatures
through the period.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
really nothing happening under high pressure...except for a weak
surface trough Friday night which will bring a chance of showers
along the northern tier of counties in southeast Ohio and north
central West Virginia. This will keep temperatures from climbing
back to the 90 degree mark for The Lowlands.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
despite the broad trough aloft over the area...only significant
weather system is a cold front slated for the Tuesday and Tuesday
night time frame. Will need to watch the operational models to see
if this creeps in earlier in the period. Otherwise...normal to
slightly above normal temperatures prevail...with dry conditions
outside of the aforementioned front.
Aviation /09z Thursday through Monday/...
infrared satellite images show plenty of middle to upper level clouds
moving east across the area. Radar images show isolated storms
crossing ahead of the cold front. Brief IFR conditions expected
along these storms. Otherwise...VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail
overnight due to cloud cover and increasing winds aloft. The
exception could be crw and bkw which received rainfall early
overnight. Low stratus or fog can be expected in these two sites.
Cold front moves through the west early this morning...and
through the mountains by middle afternoon.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios...timing and intensity showers and storms late
tonight into Thursday may vary. Fog occurrence depends on extent
of shower activity and if there are enough breaks in the clouds
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Thursday 07/30/15
UTC 1hrly 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency M M M M M M M M h h h h
heights consistency M M h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency M M M M M M M M M M M h
ekn consistency M M M M M M M M M M M h
pkb consistency M M h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency M M M M M M h h h h h h
After 06z Friday...
River Valley IFR fog possible early Friday morning.