Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 am EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
an upper level trough pushes across the area today. Another
stronger system will push southeast tonight...pushing a cold front
through.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
latest WV imagery shows a middle-level shortwave over the middle-
Mississippi Valley. A second shortwave was located over the
northern plains.
In response to the middle-Mississippi Valley wave...showers and storms have
developed across portions of southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky and
the southwest counties of West Virginia.
This feature is expected to continue moving east and should pass
across the area this afternoon. Expect the showers and storms will
continue to develop and spread northeast with time.
Current thinking is that the highest concentration of storms will
be across our southern counties. The storms that developed last
night across portions of the area produced very heavy
rainfall...with a few locations reporting flooding problems.
Airmass today should be quite similar with what was in place last
night. In fact...low-level moisture will likely increase ahead of
the shortwave...resulting in efficient rain producers. Currently
thinking there may be a need for a Flash Flood Watch across portions
of our area for today....especially across our southern counties.
Behind the initial shortwave...believe precipitation chances will decrease
and could possibly come to an end later this afternoon.
However...shortwave over the northern plains is then expected to
push southeast across the region tonight. In additions...models
indicate this feature will drag a cold front southeast. Expect
additional showers and storms will accompany these features.
&&
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
secondary short wave trough and vorticity maximum will cross Tuesday night and will help
to push the front through. Will linger probability of precipitation until this feature passes
Wednesday morning. Drier air will filter in with surface high taking control
later Wednesday and Thursday. Will allow for some chance probability of precipitation in mountains though for
potential diurnal drive rain showers/thunderstorms and rain as weak southeast low level flow develops.
&&
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
will be looking for a drier pattern to settle in through late week and
at least first half of weekend. Exception is the mountains where a few
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible each afternoon as a Lee side trough sets up in
conjunction with low level southeast flow and diff heating. A short wave trough will try
to beat down upper ridge just as it tries to build east into area late
Sunday into Monday. Have carried some chance probability of precipitation with this at this
distance. Temperatures warm up to 2 to 4 degrees above normal...especially
at night at the muggies begin to take over.
&&
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
showers and thunderstorms with generally MVFR conditions have
developed across portions of northeast Kentucky and the southern
coalfields of West Virginia since 04z. Outside of the precipitation and
in favored valley locations...VFR conditions prevailed...with
MVFR/IFR conditions in the favored valley locations.
A system approaching from the lower Ohio Valley will keep or
increase stratocu in the area overnight...with showers and
thunderstorms increasing in coverage from the SW. This may cause
the fog to start lifting before daybreak. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday...with MVFR conditions...
especially S. IFR conditions...along with brief gusty winds...
are possible under any thunderstorm.
A second system will move southeast after 00 UTC. As this system
pushes southeast....the storms should begin to end.
Confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence...medium.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios
Forecast confidence:
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Wednesday...
Overnight which would bring MVFR to IFR ceilings but keep
visibilities higher. Precipitation coming in from the SW may or may
not allow fog to lift and conditions to improve prior to spreading
over the area early Tuesday morning. Conditions with the precipitation
Tuesday may also vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Tuesday 06/18/13
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency M M M l l l l h h M M M
heights consistency M M M l l l l h M M M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
ekn consistency l l l l l l l h h h h M
pkb consistency h h M l l l l h h h h h
ckb consistency M M M l l l l h h h h h
After 06z Wednesday...
IFR at times in fog and / or low clouds Tuesday nt as the showers and
thunderstorms move out of the area.
&&
Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...jsh/arj
near term...jsh
short term...30
long term...30
aviation...jsh
