Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
moistening southwest flow prevails through weekend. Cold front crosses
Monday...with a wave along the front for Tuesday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
no major changes for the near term. Made one very minor tweak for
Saturday afternoon winds. Bumped them up a few miles per hour for
a few hours in the after. Surface gradients will tighten in response
to 45-50kt low level jet working north along the Ohio River on Sat. Would not
be too surprised if wind gusts picked up a bit as low level jet makes its way
across...especially along Ohio River along Ohio-WV border.
Otherwise forecast on track...as low level clouds have cleared out
as we are transitioning from a cold air advection to warm air advection regime. Will see some
return to middle clouds and moisture as warm front passage takes
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
warm air advection ongoing to start the period...with lots of low
level moisture incoming. This layer of moisture is very thin...only
up to about 850-800mb with very dry air above. Not much in the way
of low level lift with this either...so hard to go very high on the
probability of precipitation. Still envisioning a low stratus deck with some light rain from
time to time Saturday night and Sunday. Things become better
organized as a cold front approaches and pushes though Monday. Have
much higher probability of precipitation along and behind the cold front. Enough warm air in
place that expect all rain through the period.
Used a raw consensus blend for lows. Blended consensus MOS into
highs with a non diurnal trend Monday as the cold front passes.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
stayed close to the HPC forecast for these periods. This has a cold
front stalling south of the area Monday night...with a wave moving
along the front on Tuesday. Operational models then diverge
considerably for Wednesday into Friday. Confidence in this time
period is low. HPC has another cold front moving through on
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
prevailing conditions will be VFR ceilings overnight with scattered-
broken clouds at or above 7000 feet above ground level. After 12z Saturday...lowering
ceilings to around 5000 feet west of the Ohio River as a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Expect light southwest
tonight...increasing to 10 to 20 miles per hour especially west by Saturday
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: surface winds may vary from forecast values.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 11/29/14
UTC 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EST 1hrly 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 00z Sunday...
IFR may develop in areas of rain Sunday night into Tuesday.