Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
weak front and associated dew point gradient remains in southern
counties overnight. High pressure late tonight and Wednesday. A
low pressure system pushes east Thursday and Thursday night.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
latest surface map indicates a weak cold front extends NE-SW
across the region. This boundary is more of a moisture boundary
than temperature...as dewpoints across our southeast Ohio counties
are in the low and middle 50s with lower 70s across our far south.
A few showers/storms have developed in the higher dewpoint air.
However...expect any precipitation to dissipate after sunset.
Front should continue to ooze southeast and should exit the area
late tonight with drier air overspreading most of the area.
Models still indicate some storms could redevelop Wednesday where
the best moisture remains...so have small chances of showers and
storms limited to our extreme southern counties.
Met/mav numbers were close to previous mint/maxt numbers...so have
generally only made some tweaks.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
big story in the short term will be low pressure system and
associated rainfall with it. Operational models continue to bounce
around with track with GFS most unstable. Felt best course of
action was to stay close to esembles and wpc which tracks the low
generally over the region later Thursday and into Thursday night. 3 and 6
hour ffg is really high...on the order of 3 inches in NE Kentucky to 2.25
over north WV. With the recent dry spell and subsequent high
ffg...will forgo any mention in severe weather potential statement let alone any watch issuance.
System pulls out early Friday with lingering low clouds mixing out
later in the day.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
high pressure gradually builds into the Ohio Valley this weekend
amid a relatively west-northwest flow aloft. Pattern turns more unsettled
early next week with another reamplification of mean trough.
Generally seasonable temperatures.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
will add a bit more fog at heights between 06z and 12z Wednesday due
to the lone shower that dampended the vicinity around 23z Tuesday.
Also thought the Deep Mountain valleys would be cool enough for
some fog...so lowered the visibility at Elkins. Thought dew point spread
at 23z was great enough to not go as thick on the fog at kpkb
The showers and storms S of crw...should weaken with sunset...but
some lingering shower possible through 03z. Layered clouds in the
south with ceilings mostly 4 to 8 thousand feet broken.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: formation of low clouds and fog tonight may
vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows
consistency of weather forecast office forecast to available model information: h =
high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. M =
medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. L = low:
taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
crw consistency h h h h h h h h M M M l
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h M M M M M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
After 00z Thursday...
IFR possible Thursday and Thursday night in showers and thunderstorms...
with low clouds lingering into Friday morning.