Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
959 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
high pressure in control this week. Diurnal heating could produce
isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Near term /through tonight/...
sky grids were a touch aggressive this morning so brought those
down. Otherwise...no changes to the forecast as new model data
broad high pressure overhead remains in control providing mostly
dry Tuesday and Tuesday night. The exception will be afternoon
showers or storms developing mainly over the higher elevations due
to diurnal heating. Any shower should dissipate by sunset.
A mostly clear night is expected with River Valley fog for
developing during the predawn hours.
Temperatures will be warmer this afternoon with some places
reaching 90 degrees over The Lowlands...and to the middle 80s to
upper 70s higher elevations. Went closer to the bias corrected all blend
numbers for temperatures through the period.
Short term /Wednesday through Friday night/...
weakly forced pattern is reluctant to change. So will continue
with a very similar forecast. Did increase probability of precipitation a bit due to the
remnants of Erika showing signals on the sref. Weak high pressure
will be across the area with an upper level low meandering over
Ohio. This will result in a very Summer like weather pattern. With
no real focusing mechanism this will keep organized convection
suppressed with the only real chance being over the mountains.
Temperatures will be warm and muggy.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
the summertime weather will continue through Labor Day. Still
Don/T see any type of focusing mechanism as high pressure remains
across the southeast. Will continue with the diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Continued with the warmer size of guidance due to
the dry conditions and dry ground.
It looks like the pattern could be changing by middle week.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
surface high pressure remains in control with dry weather today.
IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog along river valleys will quickly
lift to VFR by 12-13z. VFR conditions will prevail through at
least 08z tonight. However...there is a small chance for afternoon showers
or storms difficult to pinpoint whether or not will hit a site. If
a site get rainfall...it will provide additional moisture to turn
into fog during the overnight hours late tonight. Plenty of
sunshine and hot temperatures will produce diurnal cumulus and isolated
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain through 02z Wednesday. Any showers could produce brief
periods of MVFR conditions along their path.
Light and variable surface winds will prevail through the period.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing and depth of fog tonight may vary from
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency l h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency l h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency l h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency l h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Wednesday...
IFR possible in dense River Valley fog during early mornings.