Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1009 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
a mainly dry cold front crosses tonight. High pressure crosses
Sunday. Warmer early next week. Cold fronts cross early Wednesday
and again Friday.
Near term /through Sunday/...
1000 PM update... cold front finally making it into County Warning Area...with
dewpoints in southeast Ohio starting to drop. Satellite showing some
clouds developing/moving into the northern mountains...but lowered
probability of precipitation in the mountains based on new sref.
Previous discussion...fast moving cold front scoots across into
this evening. Kept schc probability of precipitation across the mountains but otherwise a
dry frontal passage. Some Post frontal low stratus may try to linger across
the mountains and S Coal fields for a time tonight...but expect
dry air will win out for most resulting in clearing this evening.
A fantastic Sunday is shaping up with nary a cloud in the sky and
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/...
the only real change to the forecast comes at the far end and have
gone ahead and slowed down the arrival of the showers with the
approaching cold front. Keep likelies in Perry County...but trim the
extent of any probability of precipitation to the southeast as the NAM has slowed it down a
touch and do not trust the faster GFS in these situations.
Otherwise...a Dr warm front comes through Monday...pushing lowland
temperature readings towards the 80 degree mark. Northern zones
towards the mountains may have trouble keeping that pace...such as
at ckb...so expect a bit of a gradient in the maximum temperatures east
of I-79. 850mb temperatures will top out around 17c that day.
On Tuesday...take the maximum temperatures down a couple degrees over
the western zones with the increasing cloud cover during the day.
Overall...expect Monday to be the warmer of the two days west of
I-79 and Tuesday to be the warmer of the two days east of I-79.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. Brings a series of cold
fronts through...each followed by cooler temperatures under Canadian
high pressure which will bring temperatures to well below normal by
Friday. Precipitation wise...with northwest flow dominating...moisture
return from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of these fronts will be limited
with correspondingly light quantitative precipitation forecast. First front this period uses the
slower models over the faster GFS and will come across early
Wednesday...preceded by showers Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. Another front will come across Friday with even less
moisture available...so any light showers will be widely scattered.
Temperatures will get progressively cooler this period. We will
start with lower 60s for highs Wednesday and only near 50 by Friday.
Lows will start in the lower 50s Tuesday night and in the 30s by
Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/...
cold front still expected to move through this evening into
tonight. Could get a brief gust of 20kts as the front passes. Satellite
shows clouds have already broken up across much of The Lowlands.
However...could still see some of MVFR ceilings in the eastern
lowlands and mountains into tonight. Behind the front...will have
some flow to keep things stirred up...and limit fog potential.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Monday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of ceiling changes may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 10/26/14
UTC 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
crw consistency M M M M M h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h M M l l l M M h h h h
ekn consistency M l M M M h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h M h h h h h h h h h h
After 00z Monday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.