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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WAS A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN INCREASING POPS W TO E
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE TO OUR HOURLY FORECAST GIRDS WAS TO 
DECREASE POPS IN WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST 
TO EAST...REACHING MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK WE CAN BE DRY IN WESTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. IN THE MUGGY AIR...DESPITE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH WIND...THERE COULD BE RAIN INDUCED LOW SCUD CLOUDS THAT FORM...AND
CAUSE PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT LEFT THAT MAINLY FOR THE AVIATION FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS TWO UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO TRACK...ONE TUE NIGHT AND THE
LONG ABOUT WED NIGHT. HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AND ROLLING
WITH COVERAGE IN THE WX GRIDS. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE THU AND
POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR
TEMPS/DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING
TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER
AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW...BECAUSE OF CONCERNS FOR RAIN INDUCED FOG OR LOW
SCUD CLOUDS IN THE HUMID AIR...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION.

HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3 MILES IN THE
CONVECTION...REACHING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY 03Z TO 07Z. 

IN WAKE OF CONVECTION FORMING CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN 06Z TO 12Z
AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE TRIED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1 TO 3 THSD FT BKN LIFT 
TO 2 TO 4 THSD FT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT REFORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
    
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN CONVECTION.
LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST MAY ALSO FORM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MUGGY LATE NIGHT AIR. 

.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB

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