Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
wind shift scours out chill of days past. Middle/upper level low drifts
by to the south this week...with east flow here. A cold front moves
through this weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
after a rather chilly start to the week...the main story today will
be winds shifting to the east-southeast which will bring a decent warm up for
most locations. The eastern slopes will still be stuck in the chill
for another day. Have likely probability of precipitation for the eastern slopes as
well...with upslope flow as an upper low meanders by to the south.
Models also showing another area of precipitation near the tri-state
region/middle Ohio River valley...and have a rather broad area of
chance probability of precipitation across The Lowlands to allow for some uncertainty in
exact location. Also somewhat uncertain how quickly southeast flow will
develop...and consequently how much downslope effect we see in the I-
79 corridor. At any rate...while still mostly cloudy...clouds will
be higher off the ground which should also give US a brighter day.
With the upper low in the area...have rather cool air aloft...so did
include some thunder...but do not expect more than an isolated
rumble here or there.
Hang onto some probability of precipitation across the higher terrain tonight...especially
the eastern slopes...with drier weather for The Lowlands and Ohio
Short term /Thursday through Saturday/...
the easterly flow weakens but lingers Thursday...then is gone by
Friday as the middle level disturbance is moving off the NC coast.
However...our low level flow may turn easterly again on Saturday...
around the high pressure moving through Ontario toward New England.
Only likely probability of precipitation during this period were along the mountain counties
Thursday afternoon...and again on Saturday...if that easterly flow
does redevelop on Saturday. Removed any chances of thunder in that
east flow on Thursday over the mountains. Only some limited instability
develops further west Thursday afternoon.
Overall though...difficult to time and track disturbances moving
east-southeast from the Midwest this weekend. Think the 00z NAM was overdone
on initial disturbance approaching overnight Friday night. Several
solutions were weaker and further south.
All in all...tried to lower probability of precipitation...especially diurnally and was a
bit more optimistic with somewhat lower amounts of clouds Friday
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
upper low opens into a wave...eventually moving off the East Coast
over the weekend...as a cold front moves in from the north. High
pressure will build in behind the front from the north. Another
warm front will lift north across the area late this week...with
increasing heat and humidity...followed by a cold front early next
Aviation /10z Wednesday through Sunday/...
where there are low clouds...they should slowly lift into this
afternoon...with VFR expected across The Lowlands. Expect isolated
to scattered showers today...with maybe a rumble of thunder.
Southeasterly flow picks up later today...which should help
clouds lift even more from ckb to crw...but expect some low clouds
back into bkw for tonight.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing of improving conditions today may
vary. May need to add amend for rain showers as trends become more
After 12z Thursday...
no widespread IFR expected