Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015
middle/upper ridge holds in place with weak steering flow. Preview of
Summer continues. Slow moving afternoon/evening convection...
isolated to scattered...mainly in mountain counties.
Near term /through tonight/...
stagnant upper level high pressure continues...but with surface high
pressure ridging down east of the mountains. This ridging will bring
a subtle change to our weather today. The subtle change will
be a bit more moisture in the mountains on weak easterly upslope
winds...for a good chance of an elevated afternoon/early evening
shower or storm. Will continue high chance just short of
likely...since convection will still be diurnal in nature. Will
extend slight chance probability of precipitation westward to a Clarksburg-Charleston-
Williamson line later in the afternoon...as there is a modest chance
of westward propagation off the mountains. However...with less
favorable low land soundings for convection...will keep the low lands dry
outside the aforementioned slight chance. Look for high
temperatures within a degree or so of yesterdays high...continued
well above normal.
For tonight...another subtle change will be to linger a low chance
of a shower this evening before dissipating with loss of heating...
mainly in the southern mountains and eastern portions of the
southern Coal fields where the better moisture resides. Models then
have this better moisture shifting northwestward into the central
portions of West Virginia overnight...complements of the southeast
coast upper low drifting north northwest. The result will be an
increase in middle clouds tonight. Continued quite mild tonight.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
upper ridge continues across the region through Saturday night. Warm
and humid air in place...as the summerlike pattern continues.
There is a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms in this
warm humid airmass. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
on Saturday...particularly across the southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky zones...as
a shortwave moves northeast across the Midwest. Moisture from the
low off the Carolina coast will generally stay to our east and
shouldn't make it over the mountains. Summerlike pattern...with
above normal temperatures continue during the period.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as with the short term period...no significant changes were needed
to the long term period. Low pressure will lift north and east
across the Great Lakes region by early next week...sweeping a cold
front across the County Warning Area Monday night into Tuesday. Good moisture
tap/southwesterly flow out ahead of the cold front...will result in
storms with heavy downpours possible...although with decent
flow...storms should move along well. Drier...cooler air for
Tuesday into Wednesday behind the front.
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
06z Thursday through 06z Friday...
weak flow with some scattered clouds will be the story tonight.
Anticipate this leading to River Valley fog...and stayed fairly
close to the lav for timing and density of the fog. Between 06z and
12z...this keeps MVFR River/Valley fog across the western and
southern taf sites...with IFR/LIFR fog at ckb and ekn...and possibly
pkb. Expect tomorrow to be a near repeat of today...with isolated to
scattered showers...and possible a thunderstorm...with the best
chance of seeing something across the mountains. After
00z...generally scattered-broken middle clouds across the south...including bkw.
Any fog will wait until after 06z.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Thursday 05/07/15
UTC 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1hrly 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
crw consistency M M M M M h h h h h h h
heights consistency M M M M M h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l l l M h h h h h h
pkb consistency M l l M M h h h h h h h
ckb consistency M M l l M h h h h h h h
After 06z Friday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.