Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
723 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015
cold front sinking south today...stalls tonight...then returns as
a warm front Monday night. Cold front crosses late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High pressure Wednesday through Saturday.
Near term /through Monday/...
700 PM update...
Surface front still hanging out just S of the area as of
00z...with low ceilings and visibility along with patchy dz over the area in
the shallow cool sector. A wave on the front is approaching from
the Tennessee Valley with a swath of rain. This will push in from the SW
this evening up to about the i64 corridor and up the i79 corridor.
The surface front will try to return north as a warm front into
tomorrow...probably just off the surface as surface winds only
manage to swing around to the east. As the flow off the surface turns
more southeast Monday...expect the low ceilings and visibility to lift over The
Lowlands while holding in over the east slopes.
Previous discussion below...
As of around 1 PM...cold front sinking into southern Coal
fields. Some drier air trying to move into southeast Ohio...but it is
slow going and think low clouds should hang tough across most of
WV/KY/VA. Surface wave along the front moving into Tennessee
Valley...which should drive precipitation across mainly southern
County Warning Area tonight...sliding north up the mountains on Monday. Warm front
inching toward southern County Warning Area by late Monday as deepening low moves
into the northern plains. With that said...things are pretty messy
aloft with lots of little ripples sliding through. Due to
this...kept low end probability of precipitation across much of County Warning Area...and have drizzle
mentioned as well through tonight.
Did not make much change in temperatures...using a bias corrected
consensus blend. Did mix in some hrrr for this afternoon into
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
flat 500 mb ridge axis moves east of the Appalachians as cut-off
upper level low plows across the Great Lakes. Attendant cold front
will sweep through Tuesday as surface low deepens over the Great Lakes
and moves north with cut-off low. Models generally agree that
heaviest rains will keep to our south just out of the forecast
area...allowing US to avoid any water issues. However...this
forecast period shaping up to be fairly wet with up to 2 inches of
quantitative precipitation forecast figured for the southern coalfields. Made only minor
adjustments to the forecast...blending in the sref latest model
guidance for probability of precipitation...and overall blend for the temperatures. Result is not
much change to the overall forecast and a continuation to the
mild and wet pattern.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
models are a little sharper and cooler with the progressive upper
trough that swings across the area Wednesday night. With a bit
more wraparound moisture and upslope flow Wednesday night...will
linger the scattered northern mountain rain to snow showers before
ending by Thursday morning...with very little or no snow
accumulation. Otherwise...will keep more clouds remainder of the
area in the cold advection. Still no really cold air behind this
system as high pressure builds in with dry weather for the
remainder of the work week and the weekend. Near seasonable temperatures
Wednesday night and Thursday will slowly warm up...to slightly
above normal readings by Saturday under lack of clouds.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
LIFR and vlifr ceilings and visibility will rule tonight over most terminals
except kpkb where MVFR ceilings should hold. A wave along the front
will push rain into the area tonight...north of the boundary...which
may allow the ceilings and visibility to lift a bit but still remain IFR or
worse. The front will gradually creep north into the area as a warm
front on Monday but probably off the surface as winds manage to
only swing around to the east at the terminals.
The wave and associated rain pushes east on Monday with improving
conditions. This will be further aided by southeast downsloping flow
developing. So...have terminals lifting into IFR and eventually
MVFR late Monday except kbkw where southeast flow will lock in the low
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: low.
Alternate scenarios: timing of any category changes may vary.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1hrly 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
crw consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
heights consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
bkw consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
ekn consistency M M l l l l l l l l l l
pkb consistency M M M M M M M M M M M M
ckb consistency l l l l l l l l l l l l
After 00z Tuesday...
IFR possible in clouds and rain into Tuesday night as warm front
then cold front pass.