AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO CKB AT 05Z. THESE
ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AT THIS TIME.
1000 PM UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
HAVE DISSIPATED...THANKS TO THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSPIRING WITH THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WENT N TO NW EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS AND CANCELLED FFA EARLY.
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
