Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
744 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure through Thursday. Warmer Thursday and Friday. Weak
cold front moves through Friday night. Another front with more
available moisture Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

Near term /through Thursday/...
previous forecast remains on track of expected weather conditions.
No changes needed.

Previous discussion below...
no major changes were needed to the near term forecast period.
High pressure...and dry atmosphere in place across the County Warning Area.
Expecting another night of good radiational cooling across the
area...with many valley locations dropping down to or below
freezing once again. Hill Top locations probably wont get as cold
tonight due to nighttime inversion...and occasional light puffs of
wind. Kept a Ridge Valley split in the grids for tonights lows.

High pressure will slide off to the east on Thursday...with a
southerly flow developing and warmer temperatures. With the dry
atmosphere in place...expect a large diurnal swing. Will be
another day of low relative humidities...but not expecting an
enhanced fire threat due to relatively light winds.

&&

Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
low level moisture at or below 925 mb increases on southeast upslope flow
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Increased clouds...
but no precipitation...for portions of the southern mountains into
the upper Greenbrier River valley. These clouds make minimum
temperature a tough forecast there.

That southeast flow breaks down during the day on Friday.

Weak cold front tries to ooze southeast through our County Warning Area overnight
Friday night. We continue mentioning just 20 and 30 probability of precipitation with that
feature...with no thunder...for Friday afternoon west...into Friday
night east.

European model (ecmwf) has a bit more cooling at 850 mbs into northern counties on
Saturday...but still not much of a change.

The light winds on Friday and Saturday should keep the fire danger
from getting too high.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
generally continued wpc thinking with the long term period. Fairly
tranquil four days on the whole with a pleasant weekend in
store...despite a good amount of cloud cover Saturday. Still some
uncertainty regarding the Monday/Tuesday period as an upper level
short wave trough and associated cold front push across the area...with the op
GFS quicker by about 12 hours versus the most recent European model (ecmwf).
Continued to cap probability of precipitation at middle/high chance with that feature given the
uncertainty with a slight weight to Monday night and early Tuesday. Temperatures
will continue near-seasonal throughout...with highs for The Lowlands
generally low/middle 70s and mins ranging from lower 40s early in the
period to the low 50s during the later half.

&&

Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions to prevail through the period under light and
variable winds overnight. Expect winds becoming southeast Thursday by
middle day...with occasional gusts to 15 kts across higher terrain
through 23z Thursday.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Friday...

Forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: none.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thursday 04/17/14
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 00z Friday...
no IFR conditions expected.

&&

Climate...
the record low for the 16th of April was tied at Huntington WV this
morning.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am EDT Thursday for wvz005>011-
013>020-024>032.
Ohio...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am EDT Thursday for ohz066-067-
075-076-083>087.
Kentucky...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am EDT Thursday for kyz101>103-
105.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...ktb/50/sl
near term...arj/sl
short term...ktb
long term...50
aviation...arj

Climate...arj