Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
207 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
cooler and drier airmass through middle week.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
Post frontal trough sweeping through with cooler air aloft has
allowed isolated sprinkles to fire off. Have not seen any lightning thus
far this afternoon. Once daytime heating decreases...these showers
should slacken off...especially as further drying of the
atmosphere continues. Main trough over the eastern US will remain
in play on Tuesday as weak surface high pressure builds across the
Ohio Valley. Tuesday should be a fairly dry day precipitation-wise as cool
and dry airmass settles in. For temperatures...will go with bias corrected
data with a blend towards previous official forecasts which leads
to only a minor tweak.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
models in agreement with weak short wave crossing the Great Lakes
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak front will pass mainly to our
north on wendesday...mainly producing a few showers as it passes. Cool
dry high pressure builds in through Thursday night.
Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
there is a chance for some showers late on Friday and into the
weekend...as a system lifts up from the Carolinas. High pressure
again builds in for next week.
Used and blend of model and HPC guidance for most of the forecast
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
statcu deck in place this afternoon with cold air advection aloft. Slight
clearing line extending across central Ohio will drop south later
this afternoon and evening and will allow some of the clouds to
break from northwest to southeast. Some isolated showers in auto-convective
environment will continue into this evening. Surface gradients will
slacken later this afternoon to allow gusting winds to die down.
Clearing tonight along with general subsidence will allow bl to
decouple and Mountain Valley fog development.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: MVFR ceiling may vary along with timing of
morning IFR fog development.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h l l l l l l l l M l h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Tuesday...
no significant IFR conditions expected.