Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
606 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
high pressure brings drier weather today. A warm front
Tuesday...followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Front stalls to
the south with low pressure moving along the front Wednesday night.
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front sagging through the area at this time with the good cold air advection lagging a
bit. There will a brief window during predawn for a changeover to
a little sleet or snow on the back edge over The Lowlands but
should be inconsequential. Did keep some minor accumulations in
the high terrain.
Pesky low stratus will gradually scattered out from west to east today...with
the mountains hanging on to at least some stratocu a good part of
the day. Any sun we get today will become filtered in the
afternoon as cirrus overspreads the area. Temperatures today were derived
primarily on the bias corrected MOS and local in house MOS which
middle to upper 30s c and S lowlands and 20s and 30s in the mountains
and portions of southeast Ohio.
Cloud bases lower tonight with a developing warm front approaching
from the SW toward morning. Given the cloud cover tonight and
increasing warm air advection aloft...tried to stay on the warmer side of the
guidance envelope for temperatures outside of the deep hollows and
valleys...and show a rise toward morning in The Lowlands as
downsloping southeast low level flow gets going. Have chance probability of precipitation in NE
Kentucky/S WV and SW Virginia by 12z. Thermal profiles indicate a brief shot
of -fzra at the onset across NE Kentucky and the east slopes of southeast WV
around 12z. This may be a similar event as to what occurred Sunday
morning but with less duration.
Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/...
a warm front pushes northward over the region on Tuesday. Big
concern here is with the timing of precipitation and temperatures
early Tuesday. Can not rule out some freezing rain. Will have to
monitor this situation closely.
A cold front then pushes into the area Tuesday night...stalling just
south of the region Wednesday. The extent of the cold air push will
determine what happens with a low pressure system that moves along
the front Wednesday night. Here the models diverge considerably. The
NAM and Canadian are the warmest and would probably lead to flooding
issues. The sref...ECMWF...and GFS are colder and would lead to a
winter storm for much of the area...although precipitation amounts
and placement also vary considerably. Therefore confidence is low in
the outcome with this wave. Will run a winter weather solution for
now...but remain on the conservative side with amounts.
With colder air moving in behind the system on Thursday...increased
probability of precipitation with upslope potential.
Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
frontal boundary will be east of the area Thursday morning...with
colder air filtering into the region...and any lingering
precipitation changing over to snow. Expecting light accumulations
early Thursday...particularly across the higher terrain counties.
High pressure will then build in behind the departing front...for
continued cool...but dry conditions.
Aviation /11z Monday through Friday/...
morning stratus will scattered into afternoon stratocu deck...most
prevalent over the mountains and north WV. Any lingering stratocu will
dissipate this evening while cirrus overspreads the area.
A warm front will approach from the SW by 12z Tuesday...with
lowering bases into MVFR for NE Kentucky and SW Virginia amid some -ra or
Light S surface flow will become moderate moderate northwest for today. Flow
veers around to southeast tonight and increases to around 20 kts at
h925...giving kbkw a breeze late tonight.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: conditions could improve earlier than
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h M h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency M h h M l l M M M M M M
ekn consistency l h h h h h M M M M M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h M h h h h h M M M M M
After 12z Tuesday...
IFR possible in rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday...and rain or
snow Wednesday/Wednesday night. IFR in snow showers Thursday.