Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
759 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
cool...dry airmass hangs on most of the work week...before
moderating into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
800 PM update...
forecast generally in good shape. Expect more in the way of fog
Previous discussion below...
upper level troughiness dominates this period with short wave trough
overhead moving east this afternoon...and another Wednesday afternoon.
Stubborn morning stratus finally all but mixed out. Scattered
unplugged convection persists across central portions of the area in
a west-east axis. With moisture not that deep and lack of heating...not
expecting this to amount to much before dissipating by sunset.
Tonight will be another fight between fog and stratus with fog
winning out initially. We probably will be dealing with morning cumulus
again Wednesday. Models indicate increased instability Wednesday afternoon with
more sunshine and cool air hanging aloft...so the thunder chance
Temperatures looked good in light of latest bias corrected guidance.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/...
mild temperatures across the region in the short term period...as
upper trough remains across eastern u... closed upper low
over Canada. Several disturbances rotating through the the area
will keep a daily mention of showers in the forecast. Flow will
turn more southeasterly on Friday...with increased chances for
showers/storms across the mountainous counties. Temperatures
through the period look to remain slightly below seasonal norms.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday night and into
Saturday as a low moves into the area from the southwest. Increased
probability of precipitation to high chance/lower likelies in this time frame
unsettled weather will continue for much of the extended period...as
additional upper level energy drops southeast into the
Midwest...deepening the upper trough across the area...and keeping the
weather on the cool and unsettled side. Drier weather will finally
settle in towards early to middle next week as the upper trough pushes
off to the east...and surface high pressure builds in.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
tonight will bring more valley fog than last night...with less in
the way of clouds. Have dense fog crw/ekn/hts and IFR fog kpkb. VFR
conditions return after 13z with scattered to broken 4-6 thousand feet stratocu.
Some instability driven rain showers possible in the afternoon.
Light northwest surface flow will go calm tonight and then become light west on
Wednesday. Light northwest flow aloft will become light west on Wednesday.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: medium to high.
Alternate scenarios: the extent of fog may vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Wednesday 07/30/14
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h M h l l l l l
heights consistency h h h h h M h h l l l l
bkw consistency M M M M M M M h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h M M l l l l l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h M M h l l l h
ckb consistency h h h h h M M M l l M M
After 00z Thursday...
no significant IFR conditions expected.