Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
832 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
high pressure into Friday with warming trend. Cold front sags
southeast Friday night into Saturday morning...then stalls in
Kentucky and southern WV. Damp November environment Saturday into Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
830 am update...no changes necessary.
Previous discussion follows...
pleasant weather will continue...with high pressure to our east.
Not much change made to highs or lows by blending in European model (ecmwf) MOS
guidance for highs and a consensus blend for lows. Did end up a
couple degrees warmer for the western slopes with some southeast flow
downsloping possible. Expecting plenty of sunshine today...filtered
by some cirrus from time to time. With southeast flow developing
today into tonight...also increased cloud cover some across eastern
slopes for the pre-dawn Thursday.
Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
a southeast low level flow should help boost maximum temperatures into the lower
60s in the western downslope areas...while keeping it cool over the
eastern slopes. Low level moisture below 850 mbs and mostly at or below 2 thousand
feet most pronounced overnight Thanksgiving night along the eastern slopes.
As the low level flow veers Friday morning...figuring that will mix out
during the day Friday. Minimum temperatures Thursday night should
again see a ridge to valley variation with warmer readings at higher
The push from the northern branch feature and front seems to be losing
to the Southeast Ridge. As we have been stressing this week...models had a hard
time with this interaction. Will slow the front down even more. The 00z GFS
was the fastest. Will go a bit slower than that solution.
Will base this short term on the front at 12z Saturday between mgw-ckb
on SW to S of Uni to near fgx in northern Kentucky. The front then sags further
south during the day Saturday...before becoming nearly stationary
Saturday night in Kentucky and southern WV. So very little of a diurnal
near the front...but lack to a cold air punch should limit temperature fall.
This causes headaches in probability of precipitation for Saturday...especially Saturday afternoon and
evening north of the front...in our northern counties. Where will the
gradient set up?
Overall had the likely pop reaching Perry County Ohio just after dark Friday
evening...then reaching Snowshoe to Huntington line before sunrise Saturday.
So most if not all of Friday night expected to be dry in extreme southern
With the front in central and southern counties...held onto some likely probability of precipitation
Saturday afternoon and night...despite no single middle/upper level feature to
Will even have likely probability of precipitation expand a bit on Sunday with weak middle level disturbances
along the boundary.
In contrast to our crisp dry air the past few days...heading into a damp
environment Saturday into the start of the new work and school week...to
end the month of November.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
the pattern for the weekend and into next week is dominated by a
frontal boundary that waffles back and forth across our region.
Confidence in the timing and placement of this feature at in
particular time is low...so will keep some probability of precipitation through the
period...but not be overly specific.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR will continue at taf sites through the taf period. Winds will
be light out of the southeast...picking up some today into tonight. May
have some stratus developing on eastern slopes due to that southeast flow
by early Thursday morning.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Thursday...
no widespread IFR expected.