Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
246 am EDT Sat Aug 2 2014
an upper level low crosses late today into Sunday. High pressure
early next week. A weak front may cross middle week.
Near term /through tonight/...
upper trough axis slowly approaches from the west today...to a position
over c Ohio this afternoon. As such expect another day of scattered
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain primarily across southeast Ohio and north WV...where high chance was
maintained. Dry punch will be rotating into area from SW which
may cap things off across east Kentucky and perhaps S WV/SW Virginia. Tried to be
less pessimistic with sky cover today which should allow higher
numbers off mav for highs. Activity winds down this evening with
fog developing as overall flow in the column essentially GOES none.
This may be delayed pending lingering clouds though.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
upper level trough moving across on Sunday could produce showers and
thunderstorms in areas that have enough moisture. Models have some
differences in available moisture in the southern counties...but
agree on enough moisture in the north. Therefore...will run with
higher probability of precipitation in the north.
Models show that moisture has moved out of the forecast area by
Monday. NAM and GFS try to develop some late afternoon convection in
the drier air...but model sounding indicate that the atmosphere may
be too dry for this to happen. Therefore...will remove probability of precipitation.
Timing of the middle week system varies by model. With Canadian and GFS
bringing moisture from this system in on Tuesday...will include some
probability of precipitation associated with this feature.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
unsettled weather...along with an increase in humidity...expected
for the remainder of the extended period. A frontal boundary will
slowly sag south Wednesday into the remainder of the
extended...creating additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty as to how far south the
boundary will make it/timing...so held onto slight chance to chance
probability of precipitation for remainder of extended period.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
another tough fog forecast tonight. Patches of middle deck roaming
about the area along with a 20 knots southeast wind at h925 may keep
predominate dense fog in check except kekn. Have some tempo IFR
groups for khts/kpkb for fog through predawn. Aforementioned southeast wind
should bring MVFR stratus in across east slopes through dawn...affecting
kbkw. These ceilings may lower into IFR by 09z but confidence not high
enough to insert in taf there at this time.
Any fog/stratus will quickly mix out this morning for a return to
VFR conditions area wide. An upper level trough will slowly approach
today which should touch of scattered convection southeast Ohio/north WV with more
isolated elsewhere. Have some prob30 MVFR thunderstorms and rain groups in for
khts/kpkb/kckb this afternoon. Otherwise varying ceiling heights today
but remaining VFR.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: medium to high.
Alternate scenarios: extent of fog in question. Stratus may lower
into IFR at kbkw for a time through 12z.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 08/02/14
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency l l l l l l M M h h h h
heights consistency l l l l l l M l h h h h
bkw consistency h M M M M l l l l l h h
ekn consistency l l l l l l M h h h h h
pkb consistency l l l l l l M h h h h h
ckb consistency M l l l l l h h h h h h
After 06z Sunday...
brief IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms