Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1005 am EDT Monday may 4 2015
high pressure moves away...allowing a front to approach from the
northwest later night. Front then lifts back north midweek.
Near term /through tonight/...
increased surface winds this afternoon...especially for the middle
Ohio Valley including southeast Ohio. Middle morning VAD winds show 30 knots
at 925 mb at iln.
Weak middle level disturbance moves through Ohio into western
Pennsylvania tonight...though 500 mb heights do not fall. Questions
exist on how far south to include the possibility of a shower
overnight into Tuesday morning.
Was a bit quicker increasing middle deck ahead of this feature late
this afternoon in the middle Ohio Valley. Also was a bit faster and a
bit further south with probability of precipitation tonight. As a result...lowered maximum temperature
a few degrees in southeast Ohio.
Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
upper level ridge controls the synoptic pattern for the southern and
Warm front will oscillate north and south along the northern County Warning Area
boundary with pbz through middle week which will dictate the chances
for convection each afternoon. Will keep consistency with the
previous forecast for days 2 and 3 with high chance values over
north central West Virginia and southeast Ohio. Also keeping probability of precipitation in
the elevated heat source regions in our eastern Highlands.
Convection may or may not initiate in our County Warning Area...but 0-6km bulk shear
vectors indicate storms will advect into our area across the north.
This is true for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure dominates the surface flow Thursday...and have only
chances for convection over the mountains.
Storm Prediction Center keeps any risks for severe weather well north and west for the
County Warning Area.
In the meant tie...temperatures continue to creep upwards...with The
Lowlands topping out in the middle 80s. Overnight lows will not drop
out of the 60s by Wednesday night.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
used wpc thinking with some tweaks. A front should be located just
to the north of the area at the beginning of the period. The
boundary should then push northeast away from the area as an area of
low pressure lifts northeast into Canada. This will leave the
forecast area in the warm sector. At the upper levels...high pressure
should be in control. This may result in some mainly afternoon and
evening storms possible. However...much of the region will remain
dry through the period.
Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
12z Monday through 12z Tuesday...
VFR through the taf period. Generally scattered higher based cumulus this
afternoon...with a stray mountain shower possible. No thunder. A
weak front approaching from the north later tonight and Tuesday
morning will being VFR ceilings 5000-8000 feet into the north...with
possibly a shower... affecting pkb and ckb. Otherwise...some middle to
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Tuesday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.