Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1008 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a cold front crosses tonight. High pressure cruises by Wednesday
and Thursday...before dropping anchor in the western Atlantic to
begin the Summer season.
&&
Near term /through Wednesday/...
1000 PM update...
the showers and thunderstorms ahead of an advancing cold front
have dissipated...thanks to the loss of heating conspiring with the
lack of low level convergence...low level flow went north to northwest even
ahead of the front. Therefore lowered probability of precipitation and cancelled flash Flood Advisory early.
800 PM update...
fine tuned probability of precipitation with the front and decreased cloud somewhat early
on...otherwise forecast on track.
Previous discussion...
upper level system pulls east this afternoon and will see some breaks in the clouds
for southeast Ohio...NE Kentucky...and west WV. Will watch for surface front to sag southeast
into area late this afternoon and evening...along with another short wave trough
moving in from SW. With some recovery this afternoon along an west of Ohio
River...could be some convection as hinted at by some of the hi res
near term models. Not sure how strong it would be given marginal
instability. Have some probability of precipitation with this as it works through.
As this pulls east...expect some stratus for form with low level flow
turning more NE. This may mitigate very dense fog...especially east of
Ohio River. However...still have some fog in there.
Stratus/fog will break up by 15z...into a cumulus field. Have some chance
probability of precipitation in mountains for some afternoon pop ups as flow turns around to southeast.
&&
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
skies will continue clearing Wednesday night as ridging gradually
builds over the area. Temperatures start warming Thursday and Friday
as ridging strengthens. Moisture trickling up from the south will
steadily increase dew points through the end of the week and
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
focused over the mountains.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
ridging will continue to strengthen through the weekend increasing
high temperatures into at least the the upper 80s. With a continued
moisture tap dew points will also increase into the upper 60s to
around 70. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm will be a
possibility most every afternoon and evening. Above normal
temperatures and muggy conditions look likely to continue into the
first half of next week as the broad upper level ridging over the
eastern half of the US continues.
Will be looking for a drier pattern to settle in through late week and
at least first half of weekend. Exception is the mountains where a few
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible each afternoon as a Lee side trough sets up in
conjunction with low level southeast flow and diff heating. A short wave trough will try
to beat down upper ridge just as it tries to build east into area late
Sunday into Monday. Have carried some chance probability of precipitation with this at this
distance. Temperatures warm up to 2 to 4 degrees above normal...especially
at night at the muggies begin to take over.
&&
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
the portion of a long line of showers and thunderstorms headed
through the middle Ohio Valley has all but dissipated...so the
chance for a shower of thunderstorm ahead of an advancing cold front
tonight has become to small to include in tafs.
With little cloud cover...low level moisture will condense into fog
that will become locally dense overnight...although there will be a
tendency MVFR stratus to form as well and it may lower to IFR
stratus before the fog becomes dense.
All of this low level moisture will be slow to burn off Wednesday morning
as it mixes into morning cumulus. A VFR afternoon is anticipated as high
pressure builds into the area from the north...although a late day
shower or thunderstorms may pop up over the higher terrain.
Light north to northwest surface flow will go calm overnight...and then become
light north to NE on Wednesday. Flow aloft will be mainly light north.
Confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence...medium.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: there is still the chance for a shower or
thunderstorm to impact a taf site tonight. Stratus may materialize
more than forecast which would allow for less LIFR fog to develop across
the area overnight. The timing of improvement Wednesday morning could
also vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Wednesday 06/19/13
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h M M M l l l l l l
heights consistency h h h M M M l l l l l l
bkw consistency M M l l l l l l l l l l
ekn consistency h h M M M M l l h h M l
pkb consistency h h h h h M M l l l l l
ckb consistency h h h h h M l l l l l l
After 00z Thursday...
IFR or worse fog developing Wednesday nt.
&&
Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...trm
near term...trm/30
short term...Jr
long term...Jr
aviation...trm
