Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 am EDT Sat Aug 1 2015
dry this weekend under the influence of high pressure. Cold front
crosses Monday. Waves of low pressure cross through midweek.
Trending drier and cooler toward the end of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
no significant changes were made to the near term forecast period.
Some cloud cover...and occasional light rain/sprinkles across
southeast Ohio and northern WV this morning...as a weak front
approaches the County Warning Area. This frontal boundary will gradually wash out
across the north/Ohio River vicinity today...for another dry...and
warm sunny day as high pressure remains in control. Trended
temperatures similar to fridays recorded highs...with many
locations topping out in the middle to upper 80s.
A weak disturbance will approach the area late tonight...before
weakening as it nears the County Warning Area. There could be a few sprinkles
associated with this across the far north...but overall...dry
High pressure will gradually shift east late tonight...for another
calm clear night on tap...with patchy valley fog. As with previous
nights...dew point/temperature separation should be such that a
widespread fog is not anticipated.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
high pressure hangs on long enough to complete one of the nicest
weekends of the Summer. An upper level short wave trough may bring
convection late Sunday close by from northwest of the forecast area.
Otherwise the cold front and the main upper level short wave trough
associated with it cross Monday...with the good chance for showers
and thunderstorms that may arrive in the middle Ohio Valley before
Thunderstorms Monday could be a bit strong and heavy given 25 to 35
kts middle layer flow and appreciable low level pressure gradient-
driven moisture flux.
The cold front clears on through Monday nt...but Tuesday morning will
find the first of a couple of waves low pressure lurking out to
the west...and headed eastward along the southern edge of a large eastern na l/west
Blended in met/mav by day and bias corrected met/mav sun nt...not
much change overall with Monday a bit warmer southeast portions of the forecast
area ahead of the cold front. Lows Monday nt were close to a bias
corrected blend and accepted.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the cold front will linger over the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians through middle week...with waves of low pressure
developing along the stationary boundary while the parent low
occludes over central Quebec. Bring probability of precipitation up with the wave of low
pressure for Wednesday night and Thursday...but do not believe we
will head into a wet pattern similar to early July. Within the
cyclonic flow...heat and humidity will be kept to the south...and
will experience some slightly below normal temperatures during the
long term forecast.
Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/...
12z Saturday through 12z Sunday... patchy MVFR/IFR River Valley
fog through 13z Saturday. Otherwise...VFR conditions with light
surface winds through at least 08z Sunday...when patchy valley
MVFR/IFR fog expected again.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Sunday...
Alternate scenarios...timing and extent of fog tonight could vary
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 08/01/15
UTC 1hrly 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency h M M M h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h M h h h h h
ekn consistency l l l M M h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Sunday...
No widespread IFR expected.