Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
745 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue with heavy
downpours possible. Flash flooding possible. High pressure will try to
nose in from the northeast early next week as upper ridge builds.
Near term /through Saturday/...
Flash Flood Watch still rides through 05z. On going flash flooding
in eastern Kentucky and southwestern WV...particularlly in the
A ridge is just to the east but ripples of vorticity are moving across
the area...and with precipitable waters greater than 2 inches...any disturbance
is able to squeeze out a heavy downpour. Fortunately....most of
the precipitation will taper down overnight.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
drier weather regime begins to set in as upper ridge builds into the
area. It will be warm...but not hot as the oppressive heat remains
well west of the region. It will still be rather muggy
though...typical dog days of Summer.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
used wpc thinking with some tweaks. High pressure...at the surface
and aloft...will dominate the region into Wednesday night...before
weakening. This will allow a cold front to push south into the area
on Thursday...with this feature expected drift south through the
remainder of the period.
Wpc temperatures looked good and were generally used.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
heavy downpours will create IFR conditions for any site convection
nears. This is somewhat difficult to time...but expect
precipitation to continue...of and on...at least through 04z.
Outside of the precipitation...expect MVFR and VFR conditions. The
extent of these conditions will be highly dependent on the
locations of precipitation and fog.
Fog and low stratus is expected for most sites with calm to light
flow and abundant low level moisture. Expect visibilities to drop
in the predawn hours.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: low.
Alternate scenarios: duration and timing rounds of convection will
vary. At least some areas of precipitation may even linger longer Friday
night. Fog and low stratus extent and timing may be questionable.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 08/23/14
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency M M M h h h M M M M M l
heights consistency h h h h h h h h M M M l
bkw consistency M M M M M h h h h h l l
ekn consistency h h h M h h l l l l l M
pkb consistency M M M M M h h h M M M M
ckb consistency M M M M M h h h h M M M
After 00z Sunday...
IFR conditions possible in low stratus in lingering low level
moisture Saturday afternoon.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am EDT Saturday for wvz005>011-
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am EDT Saturday for ohz066-067-075-
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am EDT Saturday for kyz101>103-105.
Virginia...Flash Flood Watch until 1 am EDT Saturday for vaz003-004.