Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1224 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
high pressure dominates through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses
Friday night into Saturday. Moisture lifts back north Sunday with
wave to west.
Near term /through today/...
minor overnight low adjustments...and slight increases in the sky
coverage along the tug Fork valley.
no significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast
period. Dry conditions through Wednesday under the influence of
high pressure...with warm sunny days...and cool nights.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday...as high pressure
slowly slides off to the northeast...and upper heights build with
approach of a shortwave trough to the west. Could be a bit gusty
at times on Wednesday...particularly across the higher
terrain...as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface...and as
pressure gradient across the region tightens out ahead of
Short term /tonight through Friday/...
tweaks were necessary to the current forecast period. Warmer air
will filter into the region allowing temperatures to climb to above
normal ranges. This will make for a nice Thanksgiving day.
A front does approach the area by end of period. Moisture will
increase ahead of this system. This will bring clouds across the
area Thanksgiving night into Friday. Do think it will take a bit to
get the column saturated. For now...will bring rain across County Warning Area by
early morning Friday from northwest to southeast. The timing may
need pushed back until later Friday. Will have to keep an eye on the
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the pattern for the weekend and into next week is dominated by a
frontal boundary that waffles back and forth across our region.
Confidence in the timing and placement of this feature at in
particular time is low...so will keep some probability of precipitation through the
period...but not be overly specific.
Aviation /05z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR will continue at taf sites through the taf period. Winds will
be light out of the southeast...picking up some today into tonight. May
have some stratus developing on eastern slopes due to that southeast flow
by early Thursday morning.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Wednesday 11/25/15
UTC 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Thursday...
no widespread IFR expected.