Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
high pressure into Friday with warming trend. Cold front sags
southeast Friday night into Saturday morning...then stalls in
Kentucky and southern WV. Damp November environment Saturday into Tuesday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
no significant changes necessary to the near term period as things
look to be on track. High pressure...off to the east...with a warm
southeasterly flow across the area. Outside of periods of high
clouds...across the south this afternoon as a shortwave moves
through the area...and addl high clouds on Thursday out ahead of
approaching front...mostly sunny and dry conditions. Could be some
more extensive cloud cover Thursday across eastern slopes...as
low level moisture increases in the southeasterly flow...but no
precipitation is expected. Kept overnight temperatures towards the
cooler side of guidance...with above normal temperatures on
Thursday...particularly in favored downsloping regions.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
a southeast low level flow should help boost maximum temperatures into the lower
60s in the western downslope areas...while keeping it cool over the
eastern slopes. Low level moisture below 850 mbs and mostly at or below 2 thousand
feet most pronounced overnight Thanksgiving night along the eastern slopes.
As the low level flow veers Friday morning...figuring that will mix out
during the day Friday. Minimum temperatures Thursday night should
again see a ridge to valley variation with warmer readings at higher
The push from the northern branch feature and front seems to be losing
to the Southeast Ridge. As we have been stressing this week...models had a hard
time with this interaction. Will slow the front down even more. The 00z GFS
was the fastest. Will go a bit slower than that solution.
Will base this short term on the front at 12z Saturday between mgw-ckb
on SW to S of Uni to near fgx in northern Kentucky. The front then sags further
south during the day Saturday...before becoming nearly stationary
Saturday night in Kentucky and southern WV. So very little of a diurnal
near the front...but lack to a cold air punch should limit temperature fall.
This causes headaches in probability of precipitation for Saturday...especially Saturday afternoon and
evening north of the front...in our northern counties. Where will the
gradient set up?
Overall had the likely pop reaching Perry County Ohio just after dark Friday
evening...then reaching Snowshoe to Huntington line before sunrise Saturday.
So most if not all of Friday night expected to be dry in extreme southern
With the front in central and southern counties...held onto some likely probability of precipitation
Saturday afternoon and night...despite no single middle/upper level feature to
Will even have likely probability of precipitation expand a bit on Sunday with weak middle level disturbances
along the boundary.
In contrast to our crisp dry air the past few days...heading into a damp
environment Saturday into the start of the new work and school week...to
end the month of November.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
the pattern for the weekend and into next week is dominated by a
frontal boundary that waffles back and forth across our region.
Confidence in the timing and placement of this feature at in
particular time is low...so will keep some probability of precipitation through the
period...but not be overly specific.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions during the period. Southeasterly winds...generally
light across The Lowlands...although occasional gusts across the
higher terrain in the upper teens to lower 20 knots range...including
at site kbkw. May have some stratus developing on eastern slopes
late tonight/early Thursday...but not expected to cause any flight
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Thursday...
no widespread IFR expected.