Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
159 am EDT Sat Aug 1 2015
weak disturbance Saturday night...but mostly dry this weekend
under the influence of high pressure. Cold front early Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
no significant changes were made to the near term forecast period.
Some cloud cover...and occasional light rain/sprinkles across
southeast Ohio and northern WV this morning...as a weak front
approaches the County Warning Area. This frontal boundary will gradually wash out
across the north/Ohio River vicinity today...for another dry...and
warm sunny day as high pressure remains in control. Trended
temperatures similar to fridays recorded highs...with many
locations topping out in the middle to upper 80s.
A weak disturbance will approach the area late tonight...before
weakening as it nears the County Warning Area. There could be a few sprinkles
associated with this across the far north...but overall...dry
High pressure will gradually shift east late tonight...for another
calm clear night on tap...with patchy valley fog. As with previous
nights...dew point/temperature separation should be such that a
widespread fog is not anticipated.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
keep the forecast dry while the flow aloft transitions from dry
northwesterly to broad cyclonic...a pattern that will hold through
the long term. Cold front comes in for early Monday into the middle
Ohio Valley and will likely stall in our area. This sets the stage
for a somewhat wetter pattern heading into the beginning of next
The transitioning pattern keeps the temperatures under control for
the most part with middle to upper 80s for the lowland areas until the
cooler airmass follows as we head into the long term.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the cold front will linger over the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians through middle week...with waves of low pressure
developing along the stationary boundary while the parent low
occludes over central Quebec. Bring probability of precipitation up with the wave of low
pressure for Wednesday night and Thursday...but do not believe we
will head into a wet pattern similar to early July. Within the
cyclonic flow...heat and humidity will be kept to the south...and
will experience some slightly below normal temperatures during the
long term forecast.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
06z Saturday through 06z Sunday...
patchy MVFR/IFR River Valley fog through 13z. Otherwise...VFR
conditions with light surface winds during the period.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Sunday...
Alternate scenarios...timing and extent of fog tonight could vary
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 08/01/15
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h h M M M h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M h h
ekn consistency h h M l l l M M h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Sunday...
No widespread IFR expected.