Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1042 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015
cool moist northeast flow fades through Monday with moisture
decreasing. High pressure brings dry...comfortable weather for
most of the work week...with a cold front towards Friday.
Near term /through Monday/...
1045 PM update...
lowered lows in the northern mountains a bit based on current trends.
Forecast otherwise on track.
745 PM update...
updated the sky forecast...with more cloud into the overnight but less
by Monday morning. This may allow valley fog to form at the last
minute. Also added dense valley fog for Tuesday morning under high
pressure with its clear sky and light wind.
the sun is finally peaking out in most of the forecast area as drier
air advects into the region. Mountains are protecting US from the
deep low level moisture in all places except near the crest where
some seepage is occurring. Removed almost all precipitation chances
except near mountain crests. Expect fog to develop in and around rivers
tonight as flow weakens and breaks allow for some radiative
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
surface high pressure will gradually slide through during the
period. Combined with weak ridging aloft and fairly dry
atmosphere...have no mentionable precipitation forecast. Models to
indicate one or two weak shortwaves moving through the ridge but
think the dry air should preclude any precipitation...with just some extra
clouds drifting through. Temperatures will be fairly
seasonable...just a touch above normal for both highs and lows.
Only minimal changed made to temperature forecast by using a
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
for Thursday and Friday...used a blend of the European model (ecmwf)...GFS...ECMWF
mean and gefs mean. This would provide high pressure on
Thursday...with a cold front moving through Friday/Friday night. For
Saturday and Sunday...trended more toward the European model (ecmwf) mean. With the
possibility of a short wave and a reinforcing cold front Saturday
night into Sunday...kept some probability of precipitation.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
the cool...moist east to NE flow diminishes this period. The
mountains will continue to see MVFR ceilings that may go IFR
overnight. This is likely to include bkw but less likely ekn.
Visibilities will drop to MVFR in the mountains as well...with IFR most
likely at ekn toward dawn Monday.
The Lowlands will continue to see patchy stratocu and altocu
overnight...the stratocu remaining VFR except some MVFR stratocu
possible over the southern Coal fields of WV. The Breaks are most
likely over northern WV and eastern Ohio. More widespread breaks may allow
dense valley fog to form toward dawn Monday.
Any fog and low cloud will dissipate by 14z Monday...allowing for a
VFR day as drier air filters in from the north.
Light east to NE surface flow overnight will become light southeast in the
mountains and light and variable over The Lowlands on Monday.
Moderate east to southeast flow aloft over eastern Kentucky...southern WV and SW Virginia early
on will become light NE by dawn Monday and then remain so through
Monday. Light east to southeast flow over eastern Ohio and northern WV overnight will
become light NE by dawn Monday and then remain so through Monday.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Tuesday...
Alternate scenarios: extent of valley fog may vary overnight into
Monday morning. Ceilings may vary overnight into Monday morning...mainly in
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Monday 10/05/15
UTC 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1hrly 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
crw consistency h h h h h M M l l l M h
heights consistency h h h h h M M M M M M h
bkw consistency M M M M l l l l l l l l
ekn consistency M M M M l l l l l l l h
pkb consistency h h h h h M M l l l M h
ckb consistency h h h h h M M M M l M h
After 00z Tuesday...
dense valley fog likely overnight Monday nt into Tuesday morning...and to
lesser and lesser degrees the following two overnights and early