Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
147 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
cold front sags south into Ohio and northern West Virginia Tuesday
night...then lifts north late Wednesday. Temperatures remaining
Near term /through today/...
1010 PM update...
No changes needed at this time.
700 PM update...
Broken line of -shra making its way through parts of east Ohio zones...with
the line mainly virga in southeast Ohio. This will continue to be the case
overnight...with warm front shifting north of County Warning Area and taking most of
any -shra activity with it.
Previous discussion below...
at 18z Monday...cold front in lower Michigan near arb and in northern Illinois near
Ord. Basing forecast on front sags south to near I-70 corridor and
our Perry County by 00z Wednesday...or the end of this near term.
A bit more instability develops during Tuesday afternoon...will
continue with about 40 pop across the north.
Meanwhile...tonight...weak middle level 500 mb disturbances moving east
into the ridge...but heights still trying to rise. So fairly weak
support...and limited moisture...though have surface dews increasing
into the 50s.
Will generally stay at or below NAM and GFS MOS guidance probability of precipitation...but still
around a 40 pop moving west to east across eastern Ohio and our northern
WV counties tonight for showers. Coolest minimum temperature in the
south with less clouds and wind.
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
at the start of the forecast period...have a cold front stalled
across the northern County Warning Area...which will lift back north Wednesday. Have
slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across the north. Also have some probability of precipitation
with the elevated heat source of the eastern Highlands. Otherwise an
upper ridge remains in control...centered to the SW of the County Warning Area...so
cannot rule out some diurnal convection...mainly in the mountains.
Temperatures will be above normal...with afternoon highs in the low
to middle 80s across The Lowlands and 70s for higher elevations. Lows
will be in the 50s and 60s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
only minor adjustments made to long term period by blending in wpc
guidance. Upper ridge remains in control. Cannot rule out some
convection firing on the eastern side of the ridge...over the WV
mountains each afternoon. Cold front approaching late in the
period...which may move through Monday night or Tuesday.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
06z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday...
an upper disturbance will cross the northern portion of the area
through 13z...with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Thereafter...with east to west frontal system to our north...any
convection will be diurnal and mainly in the mountains and far
north. Given all this...any showers will mostly be high based. So
expect VFR at or above 4500 feet above ground level to prevail through the period...except
briefly lower in any heavier showers in the mountains.
After 00z Wednesday...showers rapidly dissipate with loss of
heating...with scattered-broken clouds 7000-10000 feet above ground level.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Wednesday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: if and where it rains...these may be fog
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Tuesday 05/05/15
UTC 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h M M h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h M h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 06z Wednesday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.