Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 PM EST Friday Mar 6 2015
high pressure dominates...with weak systems to the north
and...eventually...weak systems to the south...through the period.
Near term /through tonight/...
1 PM update. Clouds and scattered flurries have developed over the
Snow Field in much of West Virginia....mainly west of the mountains.
Have introduced flurries...which will rapidly dissipate with the
clouds by late afternoon.
10 am update. Tweaked temperatures up a degree or two this afternoon per
new guidance...but still well below freezing.
high pressure builds strong from the west to be in control of the
weather conditions through tonight. Models indicate h850
temperatures around minus 10c today...and warming up to around
minus 5c later tonight. With plenty of snow cover...some diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon...nevertheless...temperatures should
stay below freezing this afternoon...with mostly clear skies.
Expect a cold night...generally in the middle to upper teens.
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
high pressure builds in with dry atmospheric column in place.
However...several weak shortwaves will brush the Great Lakes and
drop into the northern zones Saturday night into Sunday and will
mainly affect the northeastern mountains. Generally used British Columbia temperatures
with a blend toward the forecast with a few minor adjustments for
the weekend to account for snow cover which should still be hanging
on despite the warmer temperatures.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
west-northwest flow aloft nearest southern edge of northern stream this period...although
there is model disagreement as to whether highs rise much. This
effects how far north southern stream systems get Tuesday and again late in the
period. This also affects how much temperatures moderate. Still do
show some moderation given no significant replenishment of cold air
and the March sun. Blended in wpc and...in some cases the mex as
well...which were not far apart...and the forecast is close to or
slightly above the previous forecast.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
18z Friday through 18z...
high pressure over the area. Enough low level moisture off the snow pack
to lift into mainly a scattered-broken 2000-3000 feet above ground level layer this afternoon
with a few flurries...dissipating late this afternoon. There may be
brief lowering into MVFR especially under the flurries.
After 21z...as these lower clouds dissipate later this
afternoon...some middle to high clouds spread into the northern portion
of the area ahead of an eastward moving warm front that is very
moisture starved for precipitation. Thus...VFR mainly scattered-broken clouds through
the period...most clouds in the north. Light surface winds for the
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
heights consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency M M M M h h h h h h h h
After 18z Saturday...
no widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
flows and runoff will continue to slow into today. Expect little
addition to flow in small streams and creeks as temperatures have
fallen well below freezing. All tributaries of the Ohio River have
receded. Expect locations along the Ohio River...especially south of
Pomeroy to continue to see a slow rise today. Backwater flooding is
expected all along the Ohio River until the river recedes below
flood or action stages.