Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
205 am EDT sun Aug 2 2015
dry continues this weekend under high pressure. Cold front
crosses Monday night. Waves of low pressure cross through
midweek. Drier and cooler toward the end of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
another quiet weather day on tap across the area. Patchy valley
fog this morning...will quickly burn off shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise...high pressure will gradually start to slide off to
the east later today...for somewhat warmer temperatures...and a
slight uptick in humidity...although still pleasant for this time
Overnight...should start off mostly clear and calm...although
clouds will gradually start to increase across the far north as a
cold front approaches the region. Models in decent agreement with
frontal boundary across southern Wisconsin through northern Illinois and
Northwest Indiana by 12z Monday. Precipitation should remain out
of the County Warning Area during the near term.
Fog will be possible again tonight...but will be less likely
across the north...where some puffs of wind out ahead of
approaching front will be possible.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
late Monday to Monday night cold front expected...and like previous
systems lately...should arrive with little fanfare. Coverage of
showers and storms should be limited...the primary factor in the low
end probability of precipitation. Frontogenetic forcing just not there...with August
starting out on the quiet side. Storm Prediction Center has the northwestern portion of
the County Warning Area in marginal...but with the main area of low pressure over
central Quebec...dynamics will be hard to come by. Front will settle
south of the area...but still clipping the southwest Virginia
Monday will be the warmest day of the short and long term pushing
the upper 80s once again...with the mountains 5 to 15 degrees off
the pace depending on elevation.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a wave of low pressure brings the front back into the central
Appalachians...and with it...the best chances for showers and storms
through middle week. High pressure pushes the front back to the
south...and will slowly decrease the rain chances through the end of
the week. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on average
through the period with synoptic scale cyclonic flow aloft holding
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
06z Sunday through 06z Monday...
Patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog generally 08z-12z. Lifting to VFR after
12z with light south to south-southwest surface winds.
Forecast confidence...medium tonight...otherwise high.
Alternate scenarios...timing and extent of fog tonight could vary
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 08/02/15
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h M M l l l
heights consistency h h h h h h h h M l l l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h M l l l l l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h l l l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h M l l l
After 06z Monday...no widespread IFR expected.