Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
high pressure will bring dry weather today. A weak cold front will
cross the region tonight. A low pressure will bring precipitation
Sunday into Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
630 am update...
Freshened up hourly temperature grids per current trends. No other
changes at this time.
Previous discussion below...
fairly benign weather in the near term periods. Main concern is the
wind today and thus fire danger threat. Low level flow increases today
out of SW...with 850 mb winds increasing 40 to 45 kts in the
afternoon. Will be fighting advancing cirrus canopy from the west
which may limit the efficiency of momentum Transfer across the
area. After running local tools incorporating BUFKIT...came up
with a general 25 to 30 kts for gusts today...perhaps a little
higher across southeast Ohio. Used lamp guidance for dewpoints...which
usually captures surface dry air better than other guidance. For
temperatures...tried to stay close to better performing local in house
MOS guidance which was on the warm side of the envelope. This all
resulted in relative humidity values dipping into the middle 20s. 10 hour observed
fuels on Thursday were in the marginal range for fire danger
across the south. 10 hour fuel forecast for today are in the 7-9
percent range across the entire area. Taking all of this in
consideration...suspect a fire Special Weather Statement will be needed today. Will pass
along to the day shift to contact forestry partners for
coordination of possible fire danger Special Weather Statement. Given warm air advection pattern...do
not anticipate meeting red flag conditions on the wind.
Fast moving short wave trough and associated cold front will zip across
tonight with a band of rain showers expected. Rolled with high probability of precipitation but
very low quantitative precipitation forecast...a hundredth or two. Winds will try to pick up again with
this feature especially on the ridges and hilltops. Inversion may
keep much of it off elsewhere.
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
models are in fairly good agreement with the overall pattern
associated with the system on Sunday through Monday. Some
differences in the thermal profile over our region...which could
make a big difference in the type of precipitation for the area.
For now...will run with a model blend which would create a fairly
typical scenario for the region...with rain in the south...and mixed
precipitation in the north and west.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
rain should mix with or change over to snow Sun night into easterly Monday
before low pressure exits the East Coast. Generally zonal flow should set up
for much of the rest of the period...with another trough approaching Thursday.
Temperatures should gradually warm at or above seasonal levels by middle week.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
12z Friday through 12z Saturday...
VFR conditions will prevail through early this evening...with only some
middle and high level clouds today ahead of a cold front this cold
front will zip through tonight with a band of MVFR ceilings and rain showers.
Do not think visibility will be compromised though.
Out ahead of the front...expect gusty southwest winds to develop
after 14z...with winds gusting upwards of 30kts across The
Lowlands. Winds may relax some early this evening before picking
back up tonight...especially on the ridges and hilltops.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 12z Saturday...
IFR possible in rain and possibly snow Sunday into Monday.