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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM 700MB TROUGH AXIS AND ASCT LINE OF 
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH 
THE ASCT NORTH SOUTH BROKEN BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING ALL THE WAY 
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTH THROUGH CODY...THERMOP...LANDER AND INTO 
EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW 
MOVING EAST BOUND TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY 12Z THIS MORNING WHICH 
WILL LAY UNDERNEATH THE 500MB LOW. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST 
TO SOUTHEAST WY AS WELL. AS THE WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW 
PROPAGATES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THE ONGOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING 
PLACE WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM THIS MORNING AS THE MAJORITY OF 
THE RAINFALL SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. A SFC BACKDOOR COLD 
FRONT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE 
DIVIDE TODAY REINFORCING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR. FOR THIS REASON 
HAVE MENTIONED A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER EVERYWHERE 
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME NEGATIVE 
LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE WILL RESIDE. THE MOST RAINFALL TODAY WILL 
LIKELY OCCUR OVER NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH 
AS WELL AS IN THE MTNS EAST OF THE DVD. BY THE END OF THE DAY 
TODAY...THE 700MB ENERGY WILL RETROGRADE WITH A NEW CIRCULATION 
FORMING AROUND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. WE COULD EVEN WITNESS 
ANOTHER FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO WITH THE LOW LCL/CLOUD BASES TODAY
ALONG WITH THE WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASCT WITH THE H7
CIRCULATION. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED NEAR KEMMERER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. COOL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT
WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 6K IN FAR NORTHERN WY WITH
CODY POTENTIALLY WITNESSING SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH ANY
SHOWERS.

IN THE MEANTIME THE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING 
ALONG THE WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SHOOT DOWN TO 
OREGON BY 00Z THU AND THEN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THURSDAY. 
THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONDUCIVE FOR MORE 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STRATIFORM RAIN AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE 
FRONT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER CONVECTION/T 
STORMS IN SWEETWATER COUNTY ON THE HEELS OF THE NORTH BOUND BAND OF 
RAIN. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE 
PRECIP EAST OF THE DVD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM MONTANA INTO THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PRETTY MUCH STALLING EAST OF THE DVD.

BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ACTUALLY TRANSITION INTO THE 
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND BE SITUATED NEAR VEGAS. WITH THE COOL 
STABLE AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA...CONTINUED DIFLUENT FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING NORTH 
ACROSS NATRONA/JOHNSON COUNTY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MOST 
RAINFALL TRENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW WAY 
DOWN IN VEGAS DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE AS MUCH COVERAGE OF 
RAINFALL AS ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR 
WEST FRIDAY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ON FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL 
INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH AND DIFLUENT FLOW INCREASES. 

FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN -4 AND -6 ACROSS NORTHERN WY 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6 AND 7K 
MUCH OF THE TIME. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST EXPECT SNOW LEVEL DUE HOVER 
AROUND 8500 FEET. AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT 
INCLUDING TONIGHT...THU NT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AT THESE ELEVATIONS.  

MODELS ARE STILL RATHER CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO 
RUN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MODELS TRENDING COLDER AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NOW. GFS AND EURO ARE
COLDER THAN THE NAM TO START THE PERIOD. MAJOR CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SRN OR SWRN UT AT 12Z SATURDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NEWD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ENDING UP OVER WRN NE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GULF IS WIDE OPEN SO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
BE SIGNIFICANT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EASILY STREAM NWD THEN
WWD AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW IN ERN CO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF IT...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ALREADY SHOWING UP
SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. H7
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE -3.5C TO -4.5C ON THE GFS IN FREMONT
COUNTY AND WARMER FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF IS -5.5C SATURDAY
MORNING AND EVEN COLDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND IS COLDER
YET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME CONCERN IF PCPN IS HEAVY
ENOUGH SATURDAY MORNING THAT PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN
FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 5K FEET OR SO. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD BE A LONGER
DURATION SNOW EVENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL WYO. THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AND FUTURE WATCHES EXPECTED. CASPER WILL BE WARMER DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE RAIN INITIALLY IN
STRONG WAA PATTERN. CASPER MOUNTAIN COULD BE SNOW. HEAVY PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS STORM FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND NOT COUNTING THE PCPN THAT STARTS
BEFORE THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SMALL
PIECE OF A NRN STREAM LOW MAY GET LOST IN THIS COMPLEX FLOW AND BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH MONDAY. A NEW UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OUT NEAR THE WRN ALEUTIANS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO THE WEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH THE LOW HANGING OFF TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO ESPECIALLY THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH 
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. RAIN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EAST OF THE 
DIVIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 09Z. HOWEVER...MVFR.IFR IN 
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS. 

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AND VCNTY SHRA AND WITH 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A -TSRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. 
BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z THURSDAY...SHRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE 
S WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL FR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. 
POSSIBLE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AT KBPI AND KPNA AFTER 08Z THURSDAY 
MORNING. BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...-SHRA ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH 
SKIES CONTINUING UNDER MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS.   

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COOL SHOWERY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE WET VARIETY AND WILL OCCUR 
MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 
6000 AND 7000 FEET IN NORTHERN WY TO ABOVE 8500 ALONG AND WEST OF 
THE DIVIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON

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